Too young. Too weak. Too inexperienced. Since taking power after his father’s sudden death 10 years ago this week, Kim Jong-un has allayed many of the fears that plagued his early attempts to extend his family’s long, brutal rule in Korea. North.
Early predictions of trusteeship, collective leadership or even a military coup were crushed by hundreds of executions and purges that spared no one, not even members of his family or of the old guard. This ruthless consolidation of power, paired with a personality seemingly tailor-made for TV propaganda, has allowed Kim to make it clear that his grip on the country is absolute.
But after ten years in power, his regime could soon be hit by a perfect storm of painful sanctions, a pandemic and only intensifying economic problems. If Kim fails, as he has publicly promised, to develop both his country’s nuclear arsenal and moribund economy, a task many experts consider impossible, his regime could falter.
The modest economic growth it was able to generate for a few years, through trade and market-oriented reforms, was followed by years of tightening international sanctions starting in 2016, when Kim accelerated the development of its nuclear arsenal and the development of missiles capable of striking the United States and its Asian allies.
After briefly emerging from his isolation to attend two summits with former President Donald Trump in 2018 and 2019, Kim is now stranded at home, grappling with economic deterioration made worse by the border closures, which are due. to the pandemic.
How Kim manages the North Korean economy over the next few years could determine the fate of his regime and even the future of the family dynasty, says political scientist Park Won-gon of Ewha University in Seoul. .
“The nuclear weapons program, the economy and the stability of the regime are intertwined. If the nuclear issue is not resolved and the economy does not improve, it could be a source of instability and confusion in North Korean society, ”he continues.
Costly sanctions
Kim absolutely needs to get the sanctions lifted if he is to revive the economy, which has also been battered by decades of incompetent management and bloated military spending.
But sanctions relief is unlikely if the statesman does not take concrete steps towards denuclearization. The COVID-19 crisis has crippled some of Kim’s main economic goals by slamming trade with China, which remains his only ally and major trading partner.
South Korean intelligence recently told the country’s parliamentarians that North Korea’s annual trade with China had fallen by two-thirds, to US $ 185 million, as of September 2021. North Korean officials are also worried about food shortages and out of control inflation. A shortage of medicines and other essentials has accelerated the spread of water-borne diseases such as typhoid fever, added parliamentarians briefed by the agency.
Talks with the United States have stalled, but Pyongyang could benefit from increased tensions between Washington and Beijing, believes Andrei Lankov, a political scientist at Kookmin University, also located in Seoul.
China is ready to keep North Korea alive by providing it with aid, fuel and food, which would reduce the pressure for Kim to have to negotiate with the United States. “Instead of growth, North Korea will have stagnation, but not an acute crisis,” Lankov said. For Kim Jong-un and his elite, this is an acceptable compromise. “
North Korea has intervened vigorously to tighten state control over the economy after the border closures imposed due to the pandemic. The move erases Kim’s previous reforms, which allowed private investment and granted more autonomy and market incentives to state-owned companies and factories to facilitate domestic trade and production.
It also appears that the North Korean leadership is trying to crush the use of the US dollar and other currencies in the market, which could indicate a melting of their foreign exchange reserves.
Nuclear weapons
Restoring central control over the economy could also be essential in mobilizing the resources Kim will need to expand his nuclear program, which would otherwise be problematic due to the deteriorating economy.
If the leader suspended for the next three years the testing of nuclear devices and long-range missiles, he has increased the firing of short-range missiles that threaten American allies such as Japan and South Korea.
“It was nuclear weapons that got Kim into this mess, but he is moving forward with a contradictory policy of developing nuclear weapons to get out of it,” said Go Myong-hyun of the Institute of Political Studies. from Seoul.
” Punishments […] are going to stay put, and a return to a state-controlled economy hasn’t been the answer in the past, and it won’t be the answer now. At some point, Kim will have to decide what to do with his nukes, and that moment could come relatively soon. “