At the end of 2023, Quebec had 528,000 non-permanent residents. A phenomenal increase of 167,000 in a single year! Across Canada, their numbers reached 2.5 million.
These figures caused a shock, the political consequences of which we saw this week. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recognized on Tuesday, for the first time, that it was necessary to “restore order” to the category of temporary residents. His Minister of Immigration, Marc Miller, admitted that the system for welcoming foreign students was “out of control”. And Prime Minister François Legault declared, in a letter addressed to his federal counterpart, that Quebec was approaching the “breaking point” due to the “excessive” number of asylum seekers on its territory. To top it off, studies establish a direct link between immigration and the housing crisis.
Ten questions to better understand.
Why has the number of non-permanent residents exploded?
The answer is not simple, because the immigration system is a mess. There are five pathways that allow non-permanent residents to settle in the country. There are therefore explosions in each of the sectors: asylum seekers, foreign students and three large groups of temporary foreign workers.
Why didn’t the closure of Roxham Road solve anything?
Because asylum seekers have found other ways to enter. According to Statistics Canada, their number jumped 51% in Quebec in 2023. More detailed data from Immigration Canada, based on arrivals at ports of entry, show that from January to November, 59,735 asylum seekers were been admitted to Quebec soil, out of a Canadian total of 128,685, or 46%.
If the flow of migrants has diversified towards other provinces, Quebec therefore still remains the main point of arrival for asylum seekers. In his letter dated January 17, Prime Minister François Legault urges Justin Trudeau to curb the influx of these applicants and better distribute them across Canadian territory. “On a per capita basis, Quebec welcomed three times more than the rest of Canada,” he emphasizes.
How can this increase be explained?
Mainly through the opening of a new channel, the entry by plane of visitor visa holders who then seek asylum, as well as Mexicans, who do not need a visa. This was facilitated by the relaxation of the criteria for issuing these visas, particularly in African countries. Ottawa’s decision in December to tighten the screw will perhaps reduce the flow of entries. Minister Marc Miller also raised the possibility of requiring a visa for Mexicans.
In the case of asylum seekers, the sole responsibility is the federal government.
Foreign students are accused of worsening the housing crisis. Is that the case ?
Yes, but it’s far from the main factor. Although foreign students represent a significant portion of temporary residents, their growth rate is not exceptional. In 2023, according to Statistics Canada, 72,620 people held a study permit in Quebec, compared to 65,000 in 2022. An increase of 13%. Added to this are holders of a combined work and study permit: 45,341 in 2023, compared to 33,862 a year earlier.
Overall, the increase totals 23,000 people, a small proportion of the 167,000 new temporary residents. Furthermore, they exert less pressure on housing than other temporary residents, because they often have access to other resources, such as student residences.
Why is Minister Marc Miller talking about a situation “out of control”?
Because there is “fraud and abuse” committed by certain establishments, especially in Ontario. Mr. Miller denounced these “diploma mills” and threatened to limit the issuance of study permits in provinces where there is no housing assistance. He also announced that prospective students would have to prove they have $20,000 to be eligible to study here.
The admission of these students is the responsibility of both levels of government. Quebec issues a certificate of acceptance, and Ottawa then grants a study visa. Quebec also complained about the fact that the federal government refused to grant visas to candidates accepted by the province. The Legault government has also opened its arms to French-speaking graduates with a fast track system to permanent residence, which is not subject to the immigration threshold.
Are there too many temporary foreign workers?
It depends on what we’re talking about. There are three main sectors. First, that of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), where employers must demonstrate that their needs cannot be met locally. These workers are often found in the agricultural sector, with contracts that bind them to their employer. Then there is the international mobility program (PMI), which includes a multitude of sectors. The most important is the post-graduation work permit, almost a third of the total, which allows graduates to work here for a period equivalent to the duration of their studies.
How many work permit holders are there in Quebec?
According to Statistics Canada, in 2023, more than 271,000 people had a work permit or a work and study permit. Their number has jumped by almost 100,000 people in one year. This is where the greatest number of newcomers are found.
Where is the increase in workers strongest?
In the PTET. By November 2023, even though the year was missing a month, the number of TFWP workers had already jumped 49% compared to the entire previous year. There were 57,000 workers in this program. Agricultural workers are falling in proportion. But we know that there have been administrative reductions which make it easier to obtain these work permits, in particular by reducing the obligation to demonstrate a need for the workforce.
These are jobs specifically requested by employers, difficult to cut without creating reactions. The slowdown could, however, reduce needs.
What about other workers?
The PMI brings together a host of permits: international agreements, personnel movements of multinationals, working vacation program (PVT), etc. In Quebec, there were 68,965 permit holders in this program in November 2023, or 18% more than in 2022. For post-diploma workers, the increase was 32% between December 2022 and November 2023.
Does Quebec have control over temporary workers?
Yes, on several of them. The PTET is a program whose responsibility is shared between Quebec and Ottawa. The PMI is under federal jurisdiction. But if post-study work permits are also under federal jurisdiction, Quebec plays a role since it is it which accepts students and awards diplomas.