“Whether it is the Tigrayans or the federal government, no one will take this report into account “, estimated on Franceinfo Wednesday, November 3 the president of the African Strategies association Patrick Ferras, after the publication of a report by the United Nations (UN) concerning possible crimes against humanity and war crimes in the Ethiopian conflict.
For a year, the conflict in Ethiopia has pitted the federal government against the regional government of Tigray, after a rebellion by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (FLPT) against the end of the ethnocentric political system, decided in 2019 by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. “This report serves as an inventory”, judged the geopolitologist, barely returned from the Ethiopian capital.
franceinfo: Is an arrival of the Tigrayans in the Ethiopian capital possible?
Patrick Ferras: Absolutely. If the two towns, Dessie and Kombolcha, are confirmed as having been taken by the Tigrayans, the army will be in complete disarray, as it has been for almost three or four months. In this case, barring a reversal of the military situation on the ground, only a few pockets of resistance will remain before the Tigrayans go to Addis Ababa, the capital. However, it should be noted and noted that the Tigrayans have been applying a clear, neat and precise strategy since June 2021.
Which “side” is the population on in this conflict?
We cannot say that the population is 100% behind Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister. In addition to the Tigray region, there are also anti-government insecurity movements in the Somali, Afar and Oromo regions. For now, they are a little pro Abiy Ahmed but as soon as the Tigrayans advance towards Addis Ababa, they will quickly change their minds. We must also not count on what the state of emergency requires, namely that these people are fighting, especially in Addis Ababa. I do not think that the population will go to fight against the Tigrayans with guns and machetes, so to speak, knowing that they will have done 800 kilometers, that they have the experience of combat and that it will not hold. not long.
Can the report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights have direct consequences on the conflict there or does it only serve as an inventory?
It serves as an inventory and can be used later, for a little more in-depth investigations and the assumption of responsibilities of certain senior Ethiopian officials, whether they are Tigrayans or the federal government. For now, the fight is on the ground. Whether it is the Tigrayans or the federal government, no one will take this report into account. Today it is difficult to see Abiy Ahmed making amends on this, nor the leader of the FLPT. Since the reports of Amnesty International and thanks to the work of journalists, it has already been known for a very long time that there had been war crimes, bloodshed, with many abuses, rapes committed by the Eritrean armies and armies. Ethiopian. So it will not come as a surprise to anyone in this country, but this report is substantial enough that we really know where something terrible is happening in Ethiopia today.