no, there was no massive transfer of votes from NUPES or Ensemble to the National Rally

Is the record score of the National Rally in the last legislative elections due to the voters of Nupes or those of Together?

For Francois Bayrouthere have been ” a massive shift from National Front voters to Nupes and a symmetrical massive shift from Nupes to the National Front. That’s what happened. »

Conversely, Adrien Quatennens considers that France Insoumise lost the majority of its duels against the RN in particular because “ 76% of Macronist voters “would have” never mind “.

The LFI manager seems to be relying on an intervention by the boss of Ipsos, Brice Teinturier, on France 2, on the evening of the second round. This indicated that 72% of Macronist voters in the first round would have abstained in the second in the event of a Nupes / RN duel. But these figures were only an estimate before the election, do not necessarily reflect the reality of the polls.

The only complete figures we have come from the Harris Interactive Institute. They indicate that in the event of a Together/RN duel, 45% of voters who voted for Nupes in the first round abstained in the second, 31% voted for the Together candidate and 24% for the RN candidate.

In the event of a Nupes/RN duel this time, 48% of Ensemble voters did not vote in the second round, 34% voted Nupes, and 18% for the RN. The voters of Ensemble and those of Nupes would therefore have behaved in the same way against the RN, with a few points. With a not insignificant carryover, but not a massive one either. Which proves both Adrien Quatennens and François Bayrou wrong.

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