The new draft agreement at COP28 on climate, prepared by the United Arab Emirates, was made public on Monday, the eve of the scheduled close of the UN conference.
The text calls in particular for “the reduction of both the consumption and production of fossil fuels in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, so as to achieve net zero [neutralité carbone, NDLR] by, before or around 2050, as recommended by science.”
But he no longer mentions the word “exit” from fossil fuels, which was a red line for many countries and observers present at the Dubai negotiations.
On coal, the text calls for “rapidly reducing coal without carbon capture” as well as “limits on permits granted for new coal-fired power plants” without carbon capture (unabated).
The project also mentions nuclear and carbon capture and storage technologies, required by oil and gas producing countries to continue pumping hydrocarbons, but in their infancy, “in order to improve efforts to substitute fossil fuels without capture (unabated) in energy systems”.
The text includes the objective of tripling renewable energies globally and doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030.
constructive China
This new document launches an intense sprint of negotiations, before a plenary session at 6 p.m. (9 a.m. EST) and potentially one or more sleepless nights for delegates and observers. In 28 years, the COPs have rarely finished on time.
But the determined Emirati president of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, boss of the national oil company, promised a “historic” agreement from December 12, the anniversary of the Paris agreement, of which he assures that the objective of limiting warming to 1.5°C, seriously threatened, is “its pole star”.
“Everyone must be flexible,” he said on Sunday. “We need to move much, much, much faster.”
China and its emissary Xie Zhenhua, veteran of the COP and close to the American John Kerry, are in every conversation.
The camps were waiting for this new text to truly “reveal their cards”, explains a source close to the presidency of the COP.
“Crucial final stretch”
The UN Climate chief on Monday called on countries meeting at COP28 to lift “unnecessary tactical blockages” in the home stretch of negotiations in Dubai, as Saudi Arabia appears increasingly isolated and China appears to be the keystone of a possible agreement on fossil fuels.
Sports metaphors are in order on Monday in Dubai while COP28 is supposed to end on Tuesday and the last night was short for everyone.
“We are in a race against time,” thundered the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, who arrived the evening before, before calling on countries to “good faith” and “maximum flexibility” to avoid a huge disappointment on Tuesday.
He was very clear: COP28 must call for an “exit from fossil fuels”, but “this does not mean that all countries must exit fossil fuels at the same time”. That is to say, rich countries must set an example, and help the poorest to finance their solar power plants or the electrification of their factories.
“We do not have a minute to lose in this crucial final stretch,” urged Simon Stiell, head of the UN Climate, before him, judging that “the highest levels of ambition are possible” on the two inseparable subjects. at the heart of the latest talks: the end of oil, coal and gas on the one hand, and the dollars that poor countries need to develop without fossils on the other.
NGOs are on fire, eager for a “COP which is a pivotal moment in our history, which we will remember with pride”, reacted Teresa Anderson, at ActionAid International.
A sign of the ambient excitement, several announced public events were canceled at the last minute.
The Saudi game
Increasingly isolated, Saudi Arabia, the leading oil exporter, Iraq and some OPEC allies are sticking to their positions hostile to any exit or reduction of fossil fuels, brandishing the threat of an upheaval of the Mondial economy.
Yet, from NGOs to negotiators, participants express the same feeling that an agreement has never been closer to signal the beginning of the end of oil, gas and coal, which has been burning since the 19th century.e century enabled global economic growth at the cost of a warming of 1.2°C.