The suspense in Türkiye will likely continue for another two weeks. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in power for two decades, was neck and neck in voting intentions on Sunday evening against his main social-democratic rival, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, stronger than ever as the country stands elections considered crucial.
Turkish voters – numbering 64 million – turned out in droves to elect their president. Five hours after the closing of the polls in the four corners of the country, no one can predict the outcome of this pivotal election in the modern history of Turkey.
The Turks thus had to choose between a president in power for twenty years and taking an authoritarian tangent and an aspiring president at the head of a coalition of six parties.
The winner must obtain a majority of 50% of the votes plus one, under penalty of a second round on May 28. This scenario, which would represent a first in the country, seemed very likely late Sunday evening, in Turkey.
According to the latest data from Anadolu Agency, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s vote fell below 50% and was recorded at 49.94% by the end of the evening, while his main rival obtained 44.30% of the vote. The Anka agency, for its part, gave 49.02% of the votes to the outgoing president, when 94.5% of the ballots had been counted, while Kemal Kiliçdaroglu collected 45.2% of the votes.
A third candidate, Sinan Ogan, is credited with around 5% of the votes. Thus, “it is still far from certain that the opposition coalition will win” analyzes the professor specializing in Turkish history and politics at the University of Quebec in Montreal, Stefan Winter.
The opposition has expressed doubts about the veracity of its results. “We are in the lead,” said Kemal Kiliçdaroglu in a tweet. Istanbul mayor and coalition member Ekrem Imamoglu appeared in front of television cameras to denounce state news agency Anadoly, accusing it of manipulating the vote count.
Kiliçdaroglu hinted later that the outgoing government might use tactics to slow down the vote count. “Poll observers and election commission officials must never leave their places. We will not sleep tonight, my people,” he said around 10:30 p.m.
The ruling party, on the other hand, defended itself: “Despite errors, the system works. Accusing institutions in panic mode makes no sense,” said one of its representatives, Ali Ihan Yavuz.
Polls had him winning by a slim lead before voting began.
Suspicion of manipulation, but no proof
The electoral commission, kept under close police surveillance, has not reported any incident of electoral fraud at this stage.
Nevertheless, these frauds “worry everyone on both sides,” says Stéfan Winter. For example, in the last elections of 2019, the opposition party won the mayoralty of Istanbul for the first time in years. Erdogan had cried fraud and a new ballot later he had won the election.
“We quickly believe in conspiracy theories too” because most of the media are controlled by the government, notes the export. “So yes, people are nervous”, even if, for the moment, “we haven’t heard anything” that would confirm these suspicions of electoral fraud. ” But we never know. »
Kemal Kiliçdaroglu is betting a lot on this democratic transparency for his election. “We missed democracy,” said the social democrat, all smiles, when casting his ballot in Ankara. “You will see, spring will return to this country, God willing, and it will last forever,” he added, using one of his campaign slogans.
Mr. Erdogan has promised to respect the verdict of the ballot box, watched by hundreds of thousands of tellers from both sides and from which he has always drawn his legitimacy.
Turkey at a crossroads
A change of course in this large Muslim but secular country would be well received by most of Turkey’s Western partners. This NATO member country enjoys a unique position between Europe and the Middle East, and is a major diplomatic player.
US Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken recently called Erdogan’s Turkey a “difficult ally”. The Turkish president, whom some compare to a Sultan, has refused to apply Western sanctions against Russia and limits press freedom in his country year after year.
“He closed newspapers critical of him. He forced many people into exile. And today, Turkey, along with China, is one of the worst countries for freedom of expression,” observes Magnus Norell, assistant researcher at the Washington Institute and senior policy adviser at the European Endowment for Democracy, based in Brussels.
Facing him, the opposition candidate enjoys a certain political virginity which makes him difficult to grasp.
Kiliçdaroglu entered active politics “lately”, in his fifties. He was first elected in 2002, when Erdogan came to power as a deputy from Istanbul. One of his greatest feats of arms in his career is to have sat at the head of Turkish social security.
He has also made benevolence a promising campaign theme. The two heart-shaped hands are his trademark. We can see him in one of his campaign videos in his kitchen, quite simply, arguing about the rise in the price of onions, which has become a symbol of popular discontent in this country. In 2022 alone, its price per kilo has increased sixfold, with a devastating effect on household budgets.
This weakening of the Turkish economy is fueling the rise of opposition. “For 5 years, since the currency has plummeted and there is an inflation problem in the country, there are more and more people in the population who cannot buy spices and their groceries from basis,” notes Stefan Winter.
“The first 10 years of President Erdogan were marked by a dazzling, very positive economic development, which everyone recognizes today and a political openness, a new wave of democratization after regimes dominated by the military. And then, it started to change after 10 years and it became really critical for 5 years” due to the economic situation of the country, notes the expert.
The country’s major earthquake in February has also shed light on corruption issues in the country, where the government has tolerated the construction of buildings that do not meet the country’s safety standards, Winter added. “All of these factors explain why we have such a tight election now,” summarizes Magnus Norell, who describes an authoritarian drift in this country.
Thus, a few months after these deadly shocks in Turkey, a political earthquake could well shake the country. In all likelihood, we will have to wait another two weeks before knowing if this upheaval will indeed take place.
One thing is certain, “this election is really crucial,” notes Mr. Norell. She will decide which path Turkey will follow. It will have an effect on neighboring countries in a major way. »
With Agence France-Presse