The cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas industry promised in 2021 by the Trudeau government will not be imposed before 2030 and it provides the “flexibility” necessary to allow companies to increase production, including in the oil sands sector.
The federal government unveiled Thursday the details of the national cap and trade system for greenhouse gas emissions rights which should, according to Ottawa, make it possible to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the sector fossil fuels, which are still on the rise.
It is planned to first grant “free” emissions rights to multinationals that exploit oil or gas in Canada, but also to liquefied natural gas installations. An “auction” could possibly be considered. Nothing was specified on Thursday regarding what could be imposed on companies, which reaped record profits in 2022.
The objective is to reduce emissions to 106 million tonnes (Mt), or even 112 Mt in 2030, which is equivalent to a decline of 16% to 20% compared to the 2005 level. For comparison, Canada has set a national GHG emissions reduction target of 40% by 2030 compared to 2005.
“Flexibility”
The ceiling, however, includes a certain “flexibility” which will allow the industry to emit between 131 Mt and 137 Mt in 2030, through a system of compensatory credits or through investments in a “decarbonization” fund which will be devoted to measures for industry.
According to what was presented Thursday, “flexibility” was written into the plan with the aim of allowing oil and gas companies “to increase production in response to overall demand” over the coming years.
At a press briefing, the federal Minister of the Environment, Steven Guilbeault, also underlined that the regulatory framework developed by the government represents what is “technically feasible” to reduce pollution, but “without harming production” . His colleague from Natural Resources also mentioned the expected use of fossil fuels in the very long term, even in the context of “carbon neutrality” expected by 2050.
In anticipation of the world climate conference, COP28, the Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres, had however pleaded for an exit from the “era of fossil fuels”, which lead us, according to him, towards “climate chaos » predicted by science. This issue is also at the heart of the climate negotiations currently being held in Dubai, where scientists and environmentalists are urging countries to commit to eliminating the energies that fuel the climate crisis.
The final draft regulations for the federal emissions cap are expected to be released sometime in 2024. Once the regulations are made public, they are expected to be adopted in 2025, but the emissions cap will not be in effect before 2030. It will be preceded by a period which should make it possible to establish “how to gradually introduce the requirements of the ceiling”.
Emissions on the rise
Since the Trudeau government promised, in 2021, to impose a limit on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel sector, many, particularly in the environmental community, are urging Ottawa to act to curb the increase. of the carbon footprint of the most polluting industry in Canada.
Senior climate policy analyst at the Suzuki Foundation, Tom Green has also raised concerns about what is planned. “We are concerned that the framework allows industry to circumvent the actual reduction of its emissions through offsets and a decarbonization fund. If industry is allowed to buy compliance and compliance, emissions will continue to rise and accelerate the climate crisis. »
While welcoming the submission of the regulatory framework, the general director of the Climate Action Network Canada, Caroline Brouillette, urged Ottawa to act quickly. “Now the government must redouble its efforts to ensure that the draft regulations are tabled by February and that the oil and gas industry finally does its fair share of the national climate effort. »
According to the most recent available report on Canada’s GHG emissions, that of 2021, the increase in emissions observed in the country since 1990 “is mainly attributable to an 88% increase” in emissions from the oil and gas exploitation sector. . In particular, they have increased by 12% since 2005, the reference year used by the government in its plan to combat the climate crisis.
Emissions from the sector reached 189 million tonnes in 2021, the equivalent of 77 million cars. They reached 100 million tonnes in 1990, and 168 million tonnes in 2005.
The capping system developed by the federal government only concerns emissions on Canadian territory, which excludes those emanating from the combustion of exported resources. Canada exports a large part of its oil and gas production. Emissions linked to the use of oil, natural gas and coal exported from Canada totaled more than 4 billion tonnes between 2016 and 2020, according to an estimate from the federal Ministry of the Environment.
More details to come.