Niger, a central player in the release of Olivier Dubois

It’s no mystery either. President Emmanuel Macron as well as the Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna publicly thanked this country of 24 million inhabitants located in eastern Mali, in the heart of the Sahelian strip. Same thanks from Anthony Blinken, the head of diplomacy of the United States: an American hostage, Jeffery Woodke was also released on Monday, March 20. Besides, Olivier Dubois and Jeffery Woodke have made their public reappearance in Niamey, the capital of Niger which is very close to the border with Mali. Niger has relays and significant contacts in northern Mali, in this area partly controlled by the GSIM group linked to Al Qaeda. Several men, sometimes with a troubled and controversial reputation, are likely to have played the mediators: Mustapha Chafi, Mohammed Akotey and Ahmada Ag Biby. The Nigerien president himself, Mohammed Bazoum, got involved in the affair. Nigerien mediators are familiar with these GSIM groups historically linked to the Tuaregs, they know them much better than their jihadist rivals from the Islamic State group who are further south, towards Burkina. Nigeriens already succeeded a few months ago in obtaining the release of an American nun.

Mediation channels with the Tuaregs

It is impossible to know whether France negotiated directly, just as it is impossible to say whether a ransom was paid, a question that always arises in such circumstances. And we will probably never have the answer. The French services were certainly involved on the ground, perhaps for the exfiltration of the hostages. But the negotiation stricto sensu was more likely led by Nigeriens. The President of Niger Mohammed Bazoum sees his interest in this: in return he secures French and American military support in his own fight against jihadist movements on the soil of his country. After the end of the Barkhane military operation in Mali and the break with Bamako, France chose to redeploy a large part of its force in Niger. For this country of the Sahel, the counterpart is also humanitarian the American Anthony Blinken was in Niamey last week and he announced the release of an American envelope of 150 million dollars.

More hostages in the Sahel zone

Niger’s role will therefore continue in the area and perhaps again on other releases of hostages. Olivier Dubois was the last Frenchman. But there are still other Westerners detained in the area: German Hans Lohre, Australian Kenneth Elliott, Romanian Ilian Ghergiut and at least three Italian nationals. And it’s not just Westerners. Dozens of Malians or Nigeriens are probably detained. And there too there are regular releases. For example, two Malian employees of the International Committee of the Red Cross regained their freedom the night before last, after being kidnapped, still in this same area in the North East of Mali, between Gao and Kidal. We too often forget that it is first and foremost the local populations who pay the price for these conflicts.