It is tonight that the long-awaited NHL lottery will take place, which will allow to discover which formation of the Bettman circuit will have the privilege of drafting in the first row of the next amateur auction. But the hope remains whole and the suspense, total, since several major surprises have occurred in recent years.
The lottery will be presented at 7:30 p.m. on TVA Sports and TVA Sports Direct.
Lottery stories have been numerous and very interesting since 1995, when the first draw took place.
Over the years and decades, the rules of the lottery have changed a lot and been refined. Thus, any comparison must be followed by an asterisk.
However, in the end, and this is a constant, the team finishing last in the general classification has much less chance of winning the lottery than of losing it. It’s math. And 2023 is no exception as the Anaheim Ducks have 25.5% odds of winning the lottery; best. But, they also have a 74.5% chance of losing it.
So there’s a three-in-four chance, roughly, that Connor Bedard will land somewhere other than Anaheim, even if the Ducks are the favorites to win the lottery.
If we take the 28 lotteries that took place from 1995 to 2022 and subtract the 2005 “Lockout Lottery” and the 2020 “Covid Lottery”, the worst team in the regular season won the coveted draw 10 times, for a success rate of 38.4%. But it’s still 16 times out of 26 that another team than the one expected has come out of the abacus.
It gives you hope, fans of the Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, and company. How about you, Habs fans?
- Listen to the NHL Draft predictions with Anthony Martineau, TVA Sport reporter on Benoit Dutrizac’s show via QUB-radio :
Changing rules
As said before, the rules of the game have changed quite a bit over the years.
From 1995 to 2012, the lottery winner could not improve his lot by more than four ranks. Thus, it was only the five worst teams in the regular season that could have any hope of drafting the first echelon.
From 2013 to 2015, the lottery winner chose at the first level.
From 2016 to 2020, the top three picks were decided by three different draws.
In 2021, it was two draws for the first two picks.
Since 2022, teams can now no longer improve their lot by more than 10 ranks and cannot win the lottery more than twice in the space of five years.
It all makes you dizzy. And that’s without the probabilities, which went from 25%, before 2015, to 20% (2015-2017), to 18.5% (2018-2021), before rising to 25.5% (2022-) , to select first.
Lottery stories
Two lotteries stand out, despite all the changes over the years. That of 2005 (Lottery lockout), when all teams had a chance to win. Eventually, the Penguins, who were one of the five teams with the most chances, emerged victorious and were able to get their hands on Sidney Crosby. That year, the Habs had spoken at the fifth level and had set their sights on a certain goalkeeper named Carey Price.
Then there was that of 2020 (Covid Lottery), where one of the eight teams eliminated in the qualifying round of the playoffs (to 24 teams exceptionally) was selected. In a second draw where these eight clubs each had a 12.5% probability of winning, it was the New York Rangers who played luck to then appropriate the services of Quebecer Alexis Lafrenière.
The other lotteries were held according to the odds and regulations of the time.
Draft Stories
So, as said before, in 10 of the last 26 “conventional” lotteries, the worst team has inherited the first pick. So, 16 times, a surprise happened. And in those 16 chances, the upset team was able to pick first place 10 times. The other six, this formation could not reach the initial selection of the repechage, not being able to improve more than a certain number of ranks, or, had made a trade, depriving it of the first selection.
The most fascinating story is from 1998 when the Florida Panthers technically won the lottery. However, due to a trade in the fall of 1997, that pick went to the San Jose Sharks, who made the playoffs that year. But, in the spring of 1998, the Californian formation had made a transaction with the Lightning involving a right for the “Bolts” to exchange the first-round picks of the two clubs if they so desired. The formation of Florida thus exercised its right and drafted Quebecer Vincent Lecavalier.
So, after all these numbers and all these crazy stories, in the end, the odds are in favor that Connor Bedard will not join the ranks of the Anaheim Ducks. And that’s reason to get excited if you’re a fan of the other 15 teams in the lottery…including the Montreal Canadiens, even though they only have a theoretical odds of 8 .5% to take the champagne out of the refrigerator.
Worst Regular Season Teams, Lottery Winners, Top Picks
- 1995: Ottawa Senators, Los Angeles Kings (7), Ottawa Senators
- 1996: Ottawa Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa Senators
- 1997 : Boston Bruins, Boston Bruins, Boston Bruins
- 1998: Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers (2), Tampa Bay Lightning
- 1999: Tampa Bay Lightning, Chicago Blackhawks (8), Atlanta Thrashers
- 2000: Atlanta Thrashers, New York Islanders (5), New York Islanders
- 2001: New York Islanders, Atlanta Thrashers (3), Atlanta Thrashers
- 2002: Atlanta Thrashers, Florida Panthers (3), Columbus Blue Jackets
- 2003: Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers (4), Pittsburgh Penguins
- 2004: Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals (3), Washington Capitals
- 2005: Lockout lottery won by the Pittsburgh Penguins
- 2006: St. Louis Blues, St. Louis Blues, St. Louis Blues
- 2007: Philadelphia Flyers, Chicago Blackhawks (5), Chicago Blackhawks
- 2008: Tampa Bay Lightning, Tampa Bay Lightning, Tampa Bay Lightning
- 2009: New York Islanders, New York Islanders, New York Islanders
- 2010: Edmonton Oilers, Edmonton Oilers, Edmonton Oilers
- 2011: Edmonton Oilers, New Jersey Devils (8), Edmonton Oilers
- 2012: Columbus Blue Jackets, Edmonton Oilers (2), Edmonton Oilers
- 2013: Florida Panthers, Colorado Avalanche (2), Colorado Avalanche
- 2014: Buffalo Sabers, Florida Panthers (2), Florida Panthers
- 2015: Buffalo Sabers, Edmonton Oilers (3), Edmonton Oilers
- 2016: Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Maple Leafs
- 2017: Colorado Avalanche, New Jersey Devils (5), New Jersey Devils
- 2018: Buffalo Sabers, Buffalo Sabers, Buffalo Sabers
- 2019: Ottawa Senators, New Jersey Devils (3), New Jersey Devils
- 2020: Covid lottery won by the New York Rangers
- 2021: Buffalo Sabers, Buffalo Sabers, Buffalo Sabers
- 2022: Montreal Canadiens, Montreal Canadiens, Montreal Canadiens