NHL | Better than ever, goalies stop fewer pucks

In hockey, the position that has certainly changed the most over the decades is that of goalie.

Watching archive footage makes you smile. Famous goals, scored by prolific scorers, would turn into routine saves for today’s goalkeepers. The reason is very simple: the masked men have never been so good, both technically and athletically.

However, in recent years, we have noticed a contradictory phenomenon. Over the last eight seasons, the efficiency rate of all NHL goaltenders has gone down. From .915 in 2015-2016, it is .903 so far in 2023-2024. The fall is gradual, but constant.

Historically, the standards linked to this statistic vary over time. The rapid rise in the number of teams in the 1970s ruined the lives of goalkeepers. They pulled themselves together in the mid-1980s until reigning masters of the circuit between the lockouts of 1994-1995 and 2004-2005, this decade nicknamed the “dead puck era” during which defensive systems were established as a religion.

Several regulatory changes marked an explosion in goals in 2005-2006. However, once again, the teams have adjusted. From 2014 to 2016, goalies peaked by stopping 91.5% of shots… before the players before them took over for good.

This reality makes it necessary to redefine our perception of this statistic traditionally considered the most significant for evaluating a goalkeeper.

“Not long ago, with a .920 percentage, you were in the top 10 of the league,” recalled Cam Talbot of the Los Angeles Kings after his club’s practice last Wednesday.

Obviously, the 36-year-old veteran has done his homework. Last season, only four goaltenders who made at least 35 starts had a save percentage of .920. The three candidates for the Vezina Trophy were among them.

In fact, all performances equal to or greater than .900, .910 or .920 have generally been in decline for 10 years. For the purposes of the exercise, we have established the minimum starts at 35 for 82-game seasons, 30 for 2019-2020 and 25 for 2020-2021.

There was a time when the threshold for respectability was set, informally, at .910. We are no longer there, notes Jake Allen.

“The new standard is lower and will remain lower until we regain our position of dominance,” he said with a laugh. I would love to aim for .925 every year, but that is no longer realistic. You have to get used to it. »

Discussion

However clear the trend may be, how can we explain it in concrete terms? We asked Talbot and Allen, but also Samuel Montembeault, of the Canadiens, and Stéphane Waite, NHL goaltending coach for 15 years, now a television and radio analyst as well as consultant for the QMJHL.

Everyone agrees on one point: the quality of scoring chances has never been greater, while the number of shots is relatively stable.

Allen: “The players improved faster than us. There was a time when we dominated, 10 or 12 years ago, but the players found a way to be better. Shots are coming from everywhere, there are more options than ever. We have to think about the game differently. »

Talbot: “The biggest change is the speed of the game. And there are no longer players who only play three or four minutes per game to check or fight. You look at the formations, and there’s not a guy who can’t take a shot at 90 miles an hour. »

Waite: “All the new players coming into the league, attackers and defenders alike, have an offensive mentality. There are skills coaches at all levels, even at school. The sticks are better than ever, the throws are incredible… And teams that play well defensively are increasingly rare. It’s the guards who pay for that. They are not less good, they are more exposed. »

Montembeault: “There are always new rules so that more goals can be scored. And teams are no longer just sending pucks deep to recover them: there are a lot more east-west passes [NDLR : la largeur de la glace] than before. Digital advantages are also more effective. Before, at 20%, you were good. Now it’s the norm. »

On this last point, Montembeault is absolutely right. On the power play, it is no longer rare to see teams posting success rates of 25%, even 30%. Over the past six years, the league average has exceeded 20% four times. Compared to zero times during the previous 26 campaigns.

The numerical advantages have completely returned, since 2017, to their level of the 1970s and 1980s. Five of the sixteen best performances in the history of the NHL have been achieved during the last five seasons.

As for the “new rules” he mentions, the Quebec goalie cites the ban on changing players on the ice for the team guilty of a refused clearance. We could add, among other examples, the reduction in the size of goalkeeper equipment in 2005, or the arrival of the 3-on-3 extension in 2015.

Until further notice

Knowing that goalkeepers and forward players have been exchanging top positions for 60 years, could the current heavy trend be reversed?

Unanimous answer: no. Not right away, anyway.

“The League wants high-scoring matches,” recalls Cam Talbot. They are not going to change the rules so that fewer goals are scored! »

Goalkeepers must therefore do everything possible to stay up to date. A recent Radio-Canada report showcased the technological resources available to them today.

What also needs to change is the way their work is evaluated. The notion of expected goals, increasingly mastered by the public, makes it possible to quantify the gap between the number of goals a goalkeeper has allowed and those he should have stopped. It puts seemingly lame performances into perspective. Jake Allen, for example, has an .898 save percentage this season. He nevertheless “saved” five goals at five against five, calculate the specialized sites Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. This gives a good indication of the quality of the defense in front of him…

On a daily basis, goalkeepers and their coaches also adopt a more qualitative approach.

“I have never been a stats guy,” emphasizes Stéphane Waite. But I analyze each goal. A goalkeeper can give four goals in a match and have done everything he had to do. »

From this perspective, the efficiency rate becomes “secondary”, concludes Samuel Montembeault.

“If a goal follows a big chance to score, with several passes [entre les joueurs adverses], there’s not much we can do other than take our hats off to them! »