As the review of the State and Social Security budgets nears completion, tensions rise with several motions of censure being filed. François Bayrou invoked Article 49.3 to bypass votes for the 2025 State budget, prompting opposition from La France insoumise and other parties. Similar actions are taken for the Social Security financing bill, with multiple motions expected. The Socialist Party plans to introduce its own motion based on recent comments by Bayrou, further complicating the legislative process.
Final Stages of State and Social Security Budgets
As we near the conclusion of the extensive review of the State and Social Security budgets, a few hurdles remain. This week and the next, motions of censure are being filed or announced, adding tension to the final stages of this legislative process. Here’s a detailed look at the upcoming timeline.
State Budget Developments
On Monday, François Bayrou invoked the government’s authority under Article 49.3 of the Constitution to ensure the passage of the 2025 State budget proposal without a vote. This proposal is a product of negotiations between deputies and senators during a mixed joint committee (CMP) held last week.
The Prime Minister’s actions have prompted La France insoumise (LFI) to file an initial motion of censure, which is scheduled for discussion on Wednesday at 3:30 PM in the Assembly. The Socialist Party has announced its decision not to support this motion, and it is anticipated that the National Rally (RN) will also confirm its opposition on the same day.
Given this context, it appears unlikely that the motion will secure the necessary 289 votes to topple the government. Should it fail, the Assembly will consider the budget adopted. Following this, a definitive vote will occur in the Senate on Thursday morning, marking the final approval of the State budget for 2025.
Social Security Budget Updates
François Bayrou also opted to apply Article 49.3 on the first part of the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) on the same day, which has resulted in a second motion of censure from LFI.
This motion will be addressed immediately after the first one on Wednesday. The agenda will then shift to the second part of the PLFSS, which is expected to invoke 49.3 again, prompting a third motion of censure. This third motion is likely to be examined at the end of this week or the beginning of next week.
It is anticipated that François Bayrou will invoke 49.3 one final time concerning the “expenditure” portion and the entire Social Security budget, possibly by Friday, depending on the timing of the prior motion of censure. In response, the Insoumis are expected to introduce a fourth motion of censure, slated for review early or mid-next week.
If all motions are dismissed, the PLFSS will be deemed adopted by the Assembly, with the government aiming for a corresponding approval in the Senate, which would finalize the adoption process. The Senate’s examination is scheduled for February 17 and 18.
Socialist Motion of Censure
The Socialist Party has declared its intention to file a “spontaneous” motion of censure based on Article 49.2 of the Constitution, particularly in response to François Bayrou’s remarks about a “feeling of migratory submersion.”
This motion is expected to be submitted “at the end of the budgetary procedure,” according to PS deputy Arthur Delaporte, likely at the end of next week. A vote can take place 48 hours after its submission at the earliest. The Socialists aim to emphasize their “opposition” to the government while reinforcing the need for a budget for France.
The official stance of various groups on this motion has yet to be determined, although some within the PS have expressed skepticism regarding its chances of adoption.