Every year, broker Charlyse Amoussou engages in an exercise that arouses curiosity: she draws up a map of the Montreal metro network by indicating the median prices of condos sold over the past 12 months within a radius of one kilometer around each station. .
Posted at 12:00 p.m.
It has also prepared a comparative table that shows the variations compared to the previous year. These figures, which do not come out of a hat, but from the Centris database to which brokers have access, allow us to appreciate from a new angle the almost general increase in this real estate segment on the island of Montreal, that the map reflects, of course, only a small portion of the territory, since it is limited to the vicinity of metro stations. We also note the great disparities in the surroundings from one station to another, both in the prices recorded and in their evolution. Thus, along the blue line, while the prices of condos sold around Acadie station have improved (+ 19.31% between 2020 and 2021), those near Castelneau have fallen by 7.15% on this same period. On the orange line, the median price around Montmorency jumped 20%, while those around Cartier rose 1.77%.
The broker, who has been drawing up this card for several years, previously reserved it for her clients, but now distributes it publicly.
It was a work tool that my clients appreciated, to give them an overview of their budget, give them an idea of price trends and allow them to make choices in their project.
Charlyse Amoussou, broker at Via Capitale
In his publication, M.me Amoussou does not provide any particular analysis. In interview with The Pressthe broker simply points out that she observes increases at the ends of the various metro lines.
IMAGES FROM CHARLYSE AMOUSSOU’S FACEBOOK PAGE
The maps drawn up by Mme Amoussou are based on Centris statistics. They present the median price of condo sales within a radius of 1 km around each metro station.
Unsal Ozdilek, full professor responsible for real estate programs at UQAM, says he likes the fact of seeing professionals in the field engage in this kind of exercise, but he calls for caution when interpreting the data. For example, with such a presentation, one might be tempted to establish a correlation between the variation in condo prices and the presence of a metro station — a link that Mme Amoussou does not establish, since it presents the statistics without any particular interpretation.
Mr. Ozdilek points out that the variation in the value of homes within a defined perimeter is a complex calculation, which can be based on up to 30 different attributes. “It takes a credible measure, taking into account the building, the neighborhood itself, the socioeconomic fabric, the places of attraction and repulsion, etc. “, he says, adding that experts are able to produce much more precise models.
The broker is aware of the generalizing scope of the map: “I always insist on the fact that it is an indicative tool, I have not categorized according to the number of floors, the number of rooms of the dwellings”, warns -she.
This year, it also plans to mount the same type of card with the Réseau express métropolitain (REM) network and commuter trains, again with data taken from the Centris bank. “I follow the request of my clientele, having been called upon to work more in the suburbs lately,” she says.
Using the median price
It is important to note that the prices displayed correspond to the median, which makes it possible to divide series into two equal parts. The median price indicates that half of the transactions were concluded at a lower price and the other half at a higher price. It is this same measure that is generally used by the Association professionnelle des courtiers immobiliers du Québec (APCIQ) when presenting its annual or quarterly statistics. “The advantage of the median as a measure of central tendency is that it is not influenced by extreme values, unlike the average price. […] The median price therefore offers a better reading of the market, both in terms of prices and the growth rate between two periods,” reads the APCIQ website.
The metro, still an argument?
With the COVID-19 pandemic, ridership on the Montreal metro has dropped significantly. Can the proximity of a metro station always weigh in the balance? “Yes, because the metro is structural. People internalize the very long-term impacts, so COVID or not, it will matter very little, ”says Unsal Ozdilek. He brings nuances as to the possible value granted by this parameter, having already measured the impact of the presence of a metro station on the surrounding real estate values, and noted that it was not linear. In some cases, he was able to observe a mixture of negative and positive impacts, for example for housing located opposite a metro station, due to the loss of privacy, noise, passing buses, surrounding socio-economic fabric. For the same station, variations in added value can be observed between the streets directly adjoining a kiosk and those located a little further away, quieter while retaining the advantage of proximity. “But proximity to the metro is only one attribute among many others,” he insists.