new standoff between Hungary and the European Union

Will the Europeans succeed in releasing 50 billion euros for Ukraine? The decision must be taken on Thursday at the summit of 27. Only one leader still vetoes: the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban.

Letting Viktor Orban obstruct, as he already did in December, would mean agreeing with an openly pro-Russian leader and weakening Ukraine militarily and politically. And, ultimately, endanger the security of Europeans. To avoid this worst-case scenario, a few council officials secretly imagined a very simple strategy: blackmail the blackmailer by threatening to bring the Hungarian economy to the ground.

If Viktor Orban continues to be as unconstructive, the confidential document (whiche Financial Times was able to consult) proposes to the leaders of the 27 to publicly commit to permanently suspending the European funding to which Budapest is entitled. In particular the 20 billion euros provisionally frozen by the Commission due to the country’s failure to respect the rule of law. Objective ? Scare the markets, ruin investor confidence, raise government bond rates, and cause the forint, the local currency, to plummet… in short, cause an already fragile economy to falter. In the British daily, the representative of a consulting company explains that Europe is threatened by a gun, she draws the bazooka. His message: it is time for Orban to fall into line.

A message of firmness

“I have no doubt about the authenticity of this document. Knowing Brussels, they are capable of it“, said Viktor Orban interviewed by the magazine Point. But in Brussels, several high-level sources deny wanting to adopt this strategy. We already know that Hungary needs these funds. And if it doesn’t have them, it can disrupt the markets. “Who is reasonable who would threaten to throw a member country and its population into an economic crisis?”

Amplified or not, the message of firmness still reached Budapest, which suddenly appeared more conciliatory. Saturday January 27, Hungary even returned the proposal, already made in December, to accept that an envelope of 50 billion be paid to Ukraine by 2027, including 17 billion in subsidies, provided that the file is regularly re-examined. This decision to support or not Ukraine must be taken in Brussels on Thursday February 1 during the summit of the 27 countries of the European Union. Viktor Orban in reality anticipates the support of the Russophile far right which could impose itself massively in the European Parliament after the elections.

The Europeans have a “plan B”

“With Orban or without him, the EU will find a solution” to help kyiv, said the new Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, on Tuesday January 30. The Europeans have a plan B. Several, even! Some countries would like to activate the sanction procedure initiated in 2018 (the famous article 7) which would make it possible to deprive Hungary of its right to vote. Except that unanimity is required, and that this is far from being achieved. Slovakia has already made it known that it will stand alongside its neighbor.

Another possibility, a decision of 26. But in this configuration it is necessary to go through a vote of the 26 parliaments: it is also a dangerous bet. Once again Europe has no choice but to find a compromise.