Between 2014 and 2017, the Islamic State terrorized Iraq and Syria, declaring a caliphate under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Its collapse followed intense military efforts. Post-collapse, ISIS has fragmented into smaller cells, with an estimated 10,000 fighters remaining active. Recent attacks, including a deadly assault in Russia and bombings in Iran, highlight its ongoing threat. U.S. officials express concern over ISIS’s resurgence and recruitment amidst regional instability, signaling a persistent risk of violence worldwide.
The Rise and Fall of the Islamic State Caliphate
Between 2014 and 2017, the Islamic State (ISIS) reached its peak, terrorizing communities across large portions of Iraq and Syria while expanding its influence throughout the Middle East. Under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed by U.S. special forces in 2019, the group declared itself the ‘caliphate’ for all Muslims. However, this reign of terror came to an end in 2017 in Iraq, just a short drive from Baghdad, and in 2019 in Syria following a relentless military campaign spearheaded by a U.S.-led coalition.
In the aftermath of the caliphate’s collapse, ISIS shifted its strategy, dispersing into smaller, autonomous cells while its leadership went underground. The United Nations estimates that around 10,000 fighters remain active in regions where the group historically found support. Despite the presence of approximately 4,000 U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq, who continue to conduct airstrikes and operations against militants, the Islamic State has managed to execute significant operations and inspire lone-wolf attacks, including one in New Orleans that resulted in 14 fatalities.
Current Threats and Global Concerns
Recent attacks attributed to ISIS include a deadly assault on a Russian music hall in March 2024, which left at least 143 people dead, and bombings during an official ceremony in Kerman, Iran, in January 2024, claiming nearly 100 lives. U.S. counterterrorism officials express growing concern that the Islamic State is re-establishing its influence and recruiting new members, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions such as Israel’s conflict with Hamas. The situation is particularly precarious for Syrian Kurds holding numerous ISIS prisoners, potentially allowing the group to exploit the chaos.
While the Islamic State has not publicly claimed responsibility for the New Orleans attack, law enforcement agencies have noted that its supporters have celebrated the violence. A senior U.S. defense official reported an increasing worry about ISIS’s recruitment and resurgence in Syria, particularly following the political turmoil that arose after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the need for vigilance, stating that ISIS could seize the opportunity to regain power, a scenario that history has shown can rapidly lead to conflict.
In summary, while the Islamic State may not regain significant territorial control, experts warn of its enduring capacity to incite violence and carry out attacks globally. With operations expanding to Africa, and recent attacks in Somalia marking a new phase of violence, the threat posed by ISIS remains formidable and multifaceted.