Like arsonists eager to rekindle the spark of their quarrels, François Legault and the brand new Quebec lieutenant of Justin Trudeau’s government, Jean-Yves Duclos, wasted no time in throwing oil on the fire of the stormy relationship between Quebec and Ottawa.
By calling on the Bloc Québécois to overthrow the federal Liberals in the confidence vote scheduled for this week, Quebec Premier François Legault was targeting the Parti Québécois first and foremost, accusing it by association of maintaining a resolutely centralist federal government in power (and omitting the fact that it would be saved by the New Democratic Party anyway). Mr. Legault was also cutting ties with Justin Trudeau’s troops.
The federal response was swift. But what was surprising was its messenger. Barely appointed Quebec lieutenant following the resignation of Pablo Rodriguez, Mr. Duclos was quick to invite Premier Legault to explain his “strange marriage with Pierre Poilievre,” whose Canadian popularity has not spread to Quebec. A strange way for Mr. Duclos to build bridges.
Especially since the Quebec minister did not stand out as a great defender of Quebec’s areas of jurisdiction during his time at Health. Quebec is still waiting for its full financial compensation for the dental insurance program, which Mr. Duclos considered, under his reign, conditional on the granting of equivalent services to Quebec. Behind the scenes, the CAQ members did not view his appointment to this strategic position essential to collaboration very favorably. For a Trudeau government whose electoral fate will depend on Quebec, this is a surprising choice.
François Legault’s exit was not any more judicious, however. His tacit support for Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives in 2021 was ill-advised. However, the Conservative leader at the time proposed at least a political offer specific to Quebec, and even the granting of additional powers in immigration.
Pierre Poilievre is not suggesting anything like that. At most, he is talking, vaguely, about reducing the intake of immigrants. On the other hand, he would not cancel Justin Trudeau’s decision to challenge the Quebec state’s secularism law before the Supreme Court, nor the dental insurance program and its interference.
While Mr. Legault believes that the Bloc Québécois blindly supports Justin Trudeau, the confidence he places in Pierre Poilievre is certainly premature.
Knowing full well that the federal Liberals will not give Quebec more powers in immigration, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet is focusing first on his demands, which are admissible. First and foremost, an improvement in old age security. Justin Trudeau’s minority government will reveal this week, during a vote, whether the Bloc is right to hope to take advantage of their newfound negotiating leverage following the end of the PLC-NDP agreement.
Whatever François Legault says, Quebecers are in no hurry to be plunged into an election. Mr. Blanchet is giving himself time to force the Liberals’ hand while he can, because a Conservative majority government would certainly turn a deaf ear to him. The Bloc’s gamble will not pay off forever, however, especially if the gains obtained are not up to par.
In the coming months, Quebec will be the battlefield of all battles. And they promise to be merciless.