New coronavirus, influenza virus… What are the main health risks in the next five years in France?

Over the coming years, the diseases likely to most seriously threaten human health will be linked to zoonoses, transmitted from animals to humans and vice versa, warns the Committee for Monitoring and Anticipation of Health Risks (Covars) on Wednesday. .

What could the next major health crisis in France look like in the next two to five years? And how to prepare for it? This is what the government asked of a scientific council, Covars, which has just submitted its report on Wednesday April 10. This committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks succeeded the scientific council, set up during the COVID-19 pandemic. This scientific committee believes that among the risks for which we must prepare, at the top of the list is that of an infectious respiratory disease which would come from a new coronavirus or an influenza virus of animal origin. Another threat to our health system: that of diseases transmitted by certain mosquitoes, such as dengue fever or fever caused by the West Nile virus.

For these experts, atmospheric or chemical pollution also constitutes an underlying threat, which must be limited, because they weaken organisms in the long term. You also need to prepare for a possible “disease X”. This is a working hypothesis to better anticipate the occurrence of a disease that would be created by an emerging pathogen, still unknown at this stage.

The consequences of climate change

In this hypothesis, an infection of animal origin, as are 75% of infectious diseases that emerge in humans, having a link with climatic and environmental changes, is favored. Rising temperatures by modifying the fauna, flora, the water cycle, and the geography of certain microorganisms or tropical diseases will inevitably have an impact on human health in the future.

To prepare for its new health risks, Covars recommends investing in research to monitor the evolution of viruses in animal reservoirs and to monitor respiratory infections. He also defends the implementation of an emergency plan in the event of an epidemic, because for these experts, “All these risks exist. We don’t know when they will arrive, but we know that they will arrive.”

Anticipating risks is all the more important as the French population is aging and needs to be able to count on a solid health system. By 2030, the number of people aged 65 and over will exceed those under 20.