new best friends or simple allies to weigh in the majority?

For a long time, they looked at each other a little askance. One was stationed at Matignon, the other has the ear of the president … But time has passed, they now each have their political stable within the majority. François Bayrou, the MoDem and its 49 deputies. Edouard Philippe, Horizons with 30 parliamentarians.

They do not really agree on everything: yesterday on the carbon tax and the “yellow vests”, today on the timetable for pension reform or proportionality. But by carefully observing the balance of power in the majority, we perceive that they are all the same now regularly on the same line.

A relative of the mayor of Le Havre tempers: “They will not go on vacation together but they have crossed interests”. Their main interest: to be respected within the majority. They both refused to be taken in by Renaissance, the new presidential party. From now on, “they make their little music heard”recognizes a minister.

This summer, Horizons even voted an amendment against the government’s opinion. A vote to protest against being treated less well than the LR opposition, to whom Bercy sent information directly. Message received: Horizons and MoDem are now better integrated into chats. On October 4, for the first time, an intergroup meeting will be organized before the parliamentary resumption.

At the Elysée, we are careful to treat each other at the right distance. With a relative majority, Emmanuel Macron cannot alienate two partners who represent almost 80 votes. An important Renaissance framework deciphers: “Bayrou and Philippe are two floats who have become essential to the boat of the majority.”

Behind the marine metaphor, this same executive is reassured: for him, this convergence does not create a real political alliance. Especially since if Bayrou and Philippe sometimes share the same analyses, they have neither the same strategies nor the same projects. A minister concludes: “They have common interests but neither will carry the ambition of the other.” Lhe subtitle is clear: the closer 2027 gets, the less these two will agree.


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