Nearly 100,000 housing units are missing in Quebec to meet household demand, according to the Association of Construction and Housing Professionals of Quebec (APCHQ), which has just updated its estimates.
Posted at 3:33 p.m.
Filling the shortage of rental properties and housing will be “a great challenge” for builders who already have to deal with the scarcity of labour, the increase in the price of building materials and the disruption of the supply chain. supply, notes the director of the economic department of the APCHQ, Paul Cardinal.
The economist estimates that it is possible to close the gap over a 10-year horizon, which would require the construction of 10,000 more homes each year than the average rate of around 50,000.
Over five years, it would be a little more difficult. Not only so that everyone coordinates and gets the projects started, but labor is scarce.
Paul Cardinal, director of the economic department of the APCHQ
The pace has been reached in 2021 with almost 68,000 housing starts in the province, but maintaining the pace will not be easy. “These units have not yet been delivered. These are sites that have started, but construction times are a little longer because of supply problems. Our people are already very busy. »
“Would we be able to support another 68,000 for five years? I do not think so. At 60,000, it’s probably possible,” he adds.
Price pressure
Insufficient supply is largely responsible for soaring real estate prices. The price of owner-occupied housing rose 16% in 2020 and 19% in 2021, the strongest increase since the data was compiled in the early 1980s.
For every active listing, there were approximately 2.8 properties sold at the end of December. However, a market is considered to be balanced when the ratio is between 8 and 10. Below this threshold, the market is in favor of the sellers.
By category, the deficit would reach approximately 58,000 housing units intended for owner-occupiers, 15,000 rental units and approximately 37,000 social housing units in Quebec, according to the most recent data from the Association. To take substitution into account (tenants who become owners, for example), the APCHQ rounds off the total of 110,000 housing units to 100,000. This estimate does not represent an exact figure, but it gives an idea of the magnitude of the needs to be met. , nuances Mr. Cardinal.
Support from municipalities and governments
In the meantime, elected officials will have to take the necessary measures to encourage and accelerate construction. The scarcity of land in several municipalities militates in favor of more dense urban development, points out Mr. Cardinal.
However, building high-rise buildings is a more time-consuming process. “When it’s time to develop residential towers, it’s more complicated. There are sometimes citizens who oppose. It can go as far as consultation processes and it can go as far as projects that die or are reviewed considerably. »
The APCHQ welcomes the measures announced by the Trudeau government to support housing construction in its latest budget. The federal government wants to double the number of apartments under construction within 10 years. It will devote 4 billion over five years to a fund intended to accelerate the construction of 100,000 affordable housing units.
The promised money will allow municipalities to “go faster” in the allocation of building permits, said Mr. Cardinal. If he is in favor of the creation of a registered savings account for first-time buyers (the CELIAPP), he is reassured that this campaign promise was not the only measure announced. “If we had just played on the demand side, without increasing the supply, we might have exacerbated the situation a little bit. [le déséquilibre entre l’offre et la demande]. »
As the next provincial campaign approaches in the fall, the APCHQ intends to make proposals to the main parties in order to increase the number of properties built in Quebec.
The Association will reiterate its call for increased funding for affordable housing. She would like the government to review the QST refund scales on new housing. She is also asking that Quebec double the tax credit for the purchase of a first home, which the federal government has just announced.
The APCHQ team is also conducting discussions with a view to proposing new solutions to elected officials, but the process is not yet complete, confides Mr. Cardinal.
“The provincial government must understand that even with what was announced by the federal government, it will not be enough to rebalance our markets. »