NDP voters, unlikely electoral target of Pierre Poilievre

(Ottawa) Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre may have embarked on the path to power by attacking the last eight years of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, but the final step to victory is painted orange .

Orange like the NDP.

Appealing to working-class voters in rural and northern ridings – like those held by the New Democrats in British Columbia and the Liberals in northern Ontario – is part of what Mr. Poilievre sees as a formula winning.

That offensive was on full display recently, as he passed through New Democratic Party (NDP) territory on Vancouver Island, rallying supporters in Nanaimo and taking photos with factory workers in Port Alberni. He also stopped at a steel mill and port in British Columbia’s Lower Mainland as part of his tour to rub shoulders with workers, whose images graced his social media feeds.

“We see Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, in stores and factories,” said Allie Blades, a strategist who worked on his 2022 leadership campaign in British Columbia.

M^me Blades, with Mash Strategy, which produces the party’s digital videos, cited a recent speech to the Greater Vancouver Chamber of Commerce – an invitation that took Mr. Poilievre 18 months to accept.

It was the first time he had appeared in front of a business audience since becoming leader in 2022, not out of spite. “This has nothing to do with my opinion of business; I like business,” he said, but because Ottawa’s “totally useless” corporate lobbyists are too focused on currying favor with elected officials.

Instead, the Conservative plan is a “bottom-up free enterprise agenda,” he said, promising to end the days when self-interested CEOs and politicians worked together only to promote their own interests.

“When I’m prime minister, if you want any of your policy agendas to be on the agenda, you’ll have to convince not only me, but also the Canadian people, that it’s good for them. »

M^me Blades said it was a populist approach that, so far, has served Mr. Poilievre well.

“It’s a change that conservatives, I think, have made rightly and strategically,” she said.

The working classes, of course, are traditional NDP territory – home to a critical voting bloc that the NDP is not about to give up without a fight.

“You’ve never seen him on a picket line,” said Anne McGrath, principal secretary to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and the party’s former national director.

Mr. Poilievre clearly touched a nerve by exploiting the public’s legitimate concern about affordability, Mr.^me McGrath, but his message is “simplistic”. The same goes for the choice voters face, she said.

“They have the big, strong voice of the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre, or they have the constructive and positive proposals and actions that they can expect from the NDP. »

Selling this will take “a lot of hard work and [un] clear message,” not to mention voter awareness, she added. The NDP has already begun to intensify its attacks on the Conservatives and flood traditionally friendly territories with mail.

A difficult battle

Their battle promises to be difficult: not only is Mr. Poilievre’s message clear and resonant, but the Conservatives are flush with money, said Mélanie Richer, Mr. Singh’s former communications director.

Mr. Poilievre’s populist approach has helped the Conservatives break fundraising records – funds essential to the leader’s energetic public agenda and to reaching new voters, like those who usually vote for the NDP.

So far, he has held 16 rallies and other meetings this year, including six in NDP-held ridings, compared to eight in Liberal ridings. Throughout 2023, his first full year as party leader, the ratio was 12 for the NDP and 19 for the Liberal Party.

M^me Blades believes Mr. Poilievre’s success with NDP voters in areas like British Columbia is the result of a “down-to-earth message” that Mr. Singh, she says, “never could be carried out in an authentic manner.

It is a province that is also deeply affected by the housing crisis as well as the opioid crisis, which Mr. Poilievre directly attributes to two factors: the federal Liberal government and the government of British Columbia, the NDP counterpart.

While critics portray his crusade against consumer carbon pricing as an exercise in sloganeering and misinformation, his supporters see it as an optimistic message, Ms.^me Blades – even in British Columbia, where a provincial carbon price has been in place for years.

The fact that the bleeding that is hitting the NDP caucus cannot harm the fortunes of the Conservatives either. Six MPs have already left the party or said they would not run again, including three in the past week, including veteran Charlie Angus, MP for Timmins—James Bay in northern Ontario since 2004. .

It’s time for New Democrats to think about the party’s relationship with working-class voters, said Ms.^me Richer, many of whom have been moving away from the party since the death of Jack Layton in 2011.

Mr. Poilievre’s office did not respond to a request for comment on whether a Conservative government would maintain a federal dental plan. He also made no commitment regarding drug insurance.

The next federal election must take place no later than October 20, 2025.

With information from Mickey Djuric, in Ottawa