As the next NATO summit draws closer (July 11 and 12), press reports relating to the ongoing negotiations regarding the successor of current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg are flourishing again1, 2.
It is nevertheless surprising to see the extent to which the names listed remain mostly disconnected from certain issues and political realities present within the framework of this selection process by consensus (Ursula von der Leyen, Mette Frederiksen, Ben Wallace, Pedro Sanchez, Mark Rutte , Kaja Kallas, Chrystia Freeland).
As indicated in an article published last February in Rubicon3I maintain that in the event of the appointment of a general secretary (that is to say a choice consisting in appointing a woman to this position for the first time), only three people are likely to be retained : current Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová, former Dutch Defense Minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and former Italian Foreign Minister and High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy , Federica Mogherini.
Going back to the names mentioned in the press in recent days, only Marke Rutte would have a real chance, although it seems that he does not covet the job, according to some sources.
Contrary to what is put forward in the articles of the last few days, the nationalities of Chrystia Freeland (Canadian, therefore not European, knowing that the position is reserved for a European), Ben Wallace (British, therefore not from a member country of the EU; not to mention the redundancy with the post of assistant to the saceur already occupied by a Briton), Pedro Sanchez (Spanish, just like the high representative of the EU Josep Borrell) and Mette Frederiksen (Danish, i.e. the same as that of Stoltenberg’s direct predecessor) constitute obstacles that are more than difficult, and even impossible to overcome for the latter.
Nor is Ursula von der Leyen a credible candidate. Its major role in the current state of the Bundeswehr, the many controversies that accompanied it during its time as minister in Germany or at the European Commission and the fact that its current mandate will only end in the summer of 2024 constitute also elements making his selection more than illusory (and this, despite his pro-Ukrainian commitment).
A signal to Russia?
As for Kaja Kallas, it is more than likely that she will not be retained because of her positions perceived as too harsh vis-à-vis Russia. However, this does not rule out his candidacy. But apart from the fact that she has just recently been re-elected, the choice of Kallas by the Allies would imply a desire on their part to send a particularly strong signal to Russia. It is likely that several states oppose it: possibly some from “old Europe”, but more likely and certainly Hungary.
The former Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin is also perceived as a hard-liner vis-à-vis Russia, although possible, her selection would again imply a strong will on the part of the Allies.
The fact that Finland just joined NATO only a few weeks ago could, however, be blamed for it, probably more by Eastern European states. However, the latter, in particular the Baltic and Polish states, could ignore this element given its strong position vis-à-vis Moscow and the Kremlin. However, it is possible that she will become the future Spitzenkandidatin of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament (S&D) during the European elections of June 2024, with a view to obtaining the post of President of the European Commission. .
With the time remaining before the summit shrinking day by day, it is not impossible that the choice of the easy way will be retained and that Stoltenberg’s mandate will be extended again (for the third time). Be that as it may, the Alliance must be recognized as having a quality in the context of this process, namely its ability to keep it secret for several months. We are a long way from the public display of the negotiation process for the appointment of European commissioners, not to mention the positions of the presidency of the European Commission and that of the presidency of the European Council.