NATO Summit | Canada wants to reassure its allies

(Washington) Canada will try to reassure its allies of its commitment to the Western alliance as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau travels to Washington, D.C., this week to attend the NATO leaders’ summit.

All 32 NATO countries are set to celebrate the 75th^e anniversary of the Alliance in the same city where the original treaty was signed.

Justin Trudeau will attend a dinner with NATO leaders at the White House hosted by President Joe Biden, with the American leader’s age and mental acuity expected to cast a shadow over the historic meeting.

“All eyes are on the United States,” said Ferry de Kerckhove, a former senior Canadian diplomat.

The world will be watching how President Biden handles the three-day summit after a widely criticized performance in the recent presidential debate.

The upcoming election and the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the presidency pose a looming concern for the long-standing defense alliance. The former president has repeatedly said he will not defend NATO members that fail to meet their defense spending targets.

Canada is one of those members, but has repeatedly denied having met the target.

Defence Minister Bill Blair showed NATO figures that show Canada’s defence spending increased by 67% between 2014 and 2021, and that relative to its economy, that spending increased from 1% of GDP to nearly 1.4%.

Canada is expected to spend 1.37 per cent of its GDP on it this year, well below the target, but Blair said he expects spending to climb to at least 1.75 per cent by 2029, with additional spending on a new submarine fleet and integrated air and missile defence systems likely to push Ottawa beyond the desired 2 per cent.

These promises may not reassure Canada’s allies in a context of tensions with Russia, North Korea and China.

“Can we really convince the people around the table and the Americans that we are going to intervene at the right time?” Mr. Kerckhove asked.

Support for Ukraine at the heart of discussions

The war ravaging Ukraine will be at the forefront of the summit, with bilateral security agreements expected to be signed. But the summit is unlikely to go as far as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes, said Aurel Braun, a professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto.

“This summit… could be a turning point for Ukraine: what is NATO going to do?” Mr. Braun asks.

A Canadian government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trudeau, along with Bill Blair and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, will speak strongly about the need to continue supporting Ukraine as doubts grow in Europe and the United States about continued commitments to Kyiv.

NATO member companies have spent the equivalent of $59 billion Canadian each year on military equipment for Ukraine since the war began in February 2022. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday he expects heads of state and government to agree to a substantial package for Ukraine that “provides a bridge to NATO membership.”

Members have overwhelmingly supported Ukraine, but are careful not to get drawn into a wider conflict with Russia.

Hungary agreed last month not to veto NATO efforts at the upcoming summit to support Ukraine, as long as the country does not have to participate in the alliance’s defense.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán came under fire from Kyiv and some European leaders as he traveled to Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, during which he claimed they had discussed peace proposals for Ukraine.

Mr. Braun, who is also an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, said he would seek more details on the promise made at last year’s summit, when NATO leaders agreed to speed up Ukraine’s accession process.

This is unlikely to become a reality for many years. The researcher believes that the possibility of Ukraine’s accession could lead to concessions that would not satisfy Mr. Zelensky. “Are they offering a bridge or selling a bridge?” Mr. Braun imagined.

Preparations for the US elections

Justin Trudeau will also use his time in Washington for other meetings in the city to support Team Canada’s efforts ahead of the U.S. election to ensure the government is prepared for any outcome. He will meet with Republican and Democratic politicians, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Mr Trudeau was criticised for his lack of preparation for Donald Trump’s presidency after the 2016 US election and relations between the two leaders were particularly difficult throughout the Republican leader’s four-year term.

Experts say meeting defence funding targets will go a long way toward strengthening relations with Canada’s largest trading partner.