A year after Russia launched its invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Finland and Sweden still feel the urgency for them to join NATO. So much so that Helsinki seems to be preparing to move forward without waiting for Stockholm to get the green light in turn. In interview with The dutythe ambassadors of the two Nordic countries reveal that their initial solidarity is giving way to a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) paralyzed by the stubbornness of Hungary and, above all, Turkey.
Finland and Sweden caused a surprise last year by abandoning their traditional policy of neutrality towards Russia to apply for NATO membership.
The war south of their borders has been dragging on ever since. Russia has made slower progress in Ukraine than some initially predicted. But the eagerness to join NATO remains just as strong.
“The Russians have blatantly demonstrated that they are prepared to use military force to seize territory from a neighboring country. [Un comportement] which was, we thought, ancient history,” says the Swedish ambassador to Ottawa, Urban Ahlin, explaining his country’s change of course.
His counterpart from Finland, Roy Eriksson, offers the same justification. The Finns saw, before February 24, 2022, a possible NATO membership as an insurance policy which they could protect themselves if necessary. “When Russia attacked Ukraine, people understood that it was time to arm themselves with this insurance policy now,” said Ambassador Eriksson in an interview recently.
NATO has also demonstrated that it understands this sense of urgency, in the opinion of the two ambassadors. Almost all member countries quickly ratified their demands. Canada was the first to do so. But Hungary still resists and the deliberations stretch within its Parliament.
When Russia attacked Ukraine, people realized it was time to arm themselves with this insurance policy now.
Turkey, for its part, persists in refusing Sweden to join NATO. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who will seek a new election in May, maintains that Sweden is not doing enough to crack down on Kurdish separatists on its territory. At the end of January, Mr. Erdoğan opened the door for Turkey to accept entry from Finland only.
A tandem that fractures
The Swedish ambassador, Urban Ahlin, is adamant. “Sweden and Finland go hand in hand,” he insists on the phone. “We proposed together. We will join NATO together. »
However, the Finnish government has recently hinted that it could go ahead without its first ally. Ambassador Ahlin replies that the leaders of the two Nordic countries are indeed in symbiosis.
Ambassador Eriksson, however, was much less categorical. It would be “logical” for Finland and Sweden to join NATO together. The requests were submitted jointly and Finland “would like” them to be accepted jointly.
But “the world will not collapse if this is not the case”, nuance Roy Eriksson, in his office in Ottawa. “These are obviously two separate requests. We presented them at the same time, but they are two different countries,” he adds. “Every politician needs to consider a plan B.”
The Finnish parliament adopted precisely, a few days after this interview, the law authorizing its entry into the military alliance, pending the ratification of Hungary and Turkey. Elections are scheduled for April, and Finland — whose border with Russia is the longest in Europe — wanted to avoid delays.
A recent poll revealed that 53% of Finns reject the idea of their country waiting for Sweden to join NATO. Only 28% answered in the affirmative.
The next peak as a test
Ambassadors Ahlin and Eriksson would like their request to be accepted by the next NATO summit, which will be held in July in Lithuania.
If member countries fail to agree or convince Hungary and Turkey to side with their 28 partners, NATO’s legitimacy will suffer, suggests Roy Eriksson.
The ambassador is careful not to criticize the alliance directly, but he quotes analysts who have noted that NATO could then be accused of being “so weak that its members cannot even agree on an issue which is in their own interest.
Sweden accuses Turkey of not respecting the agreement in principle concluded last summer, which was to allow its adhesion as well as that of Finland, and thus of “changing the rules of the game after the fact”. Ankara criticizes Stockholm for refusing to extradite Kurds it suspects of being combatants operating in Sweden. Turkey also did not tolerate a far-right activist burning the Koran outside its embassy in the Swedish capital.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, for his part, is angry with the two Nordic countries for having criticized – like several others in Europe – the rule of law in Hungary.
While waiting for the last two recalcitrants to ratify their request, the level of concern in Sweden and Finland remains about the same.
The Finns, however, have seen an increase in cyberattacks. The authorities do not point the finger at Russia, but the population suspects the neighbor to the east of being responsible and thus trying to intimidate the Finnish state.
One more reason to protect yourself quickly, reiterate ambassadors Eriksson and Ahlin.