NATO Secretary General threatened on Wednesday to ratchet up pressure on members lagging behind on military budgets, like Canada, by urging Atlantic Alliance countries to meet specific targets and timelines .
As the war in Ukraine and other threats eat away at military budgets, Jens Stoltenberg specifically urged the 30 members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to renew their pledges to spend at least 2% of their Defense GDP.
Member states of the military alliance, including Canada, first agreed in 2014 to “aim” to spend 2% of their GDP on defense over the next decade, after the invasion of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea by Russia.
Yet Canada has long lagged most of its allies in spending as a percentage of GDP. Successive federal governments — Conservative and Liberal — have instead insisted that this 2% of GDP target was in fact a “guideline,” not a formal requirement.
Speaking to reporters in Brussels after a meeting of NATO defense ministers, Stoltenberg said on Wednesday that allies had started talking about setting a new spending target .
Some members have suggested 2.5%, others feel that this target is unrealistic. However, rather than raising or lowering the bar, Mr. Stoltenberg suggested that all allies should be obliged to really respect the one that is there.
“Instead of changing the 2%, I think we should look at it not as a cap anymore, but as a floor and a minimum,” he said.
“We need an immediate commitment to spend at least 2%, because when we see the need for ammunition, air defence, training, readiness, high-end capabilities, obviously 2% of defense is the minimum. »
A report released by Stoltenberg last summer estimated that Canada’s defense spending as a percentage of GDP would be 1.27% last year, down from 1.32% in 2021 and 1.42% in 2020.
Only five NATO allies were expected to spend less of their GDP on the military: Slovenia, Turkey, Belgium, Spain and Luxembourg. Slovenia and Spain are among the countries that have committed to reaching the 2% target over the next few years.
Anand stays the course
Asked on the sidelines of the Brussels meeting on Wednesday, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand essentially stayed the course on the initial scenario, reiterating that Canada was stepping up its commitments in various ways.
This includes an injection of $8 billion over five years in last year’s federal budget, which would bring spending to 1.5% of GDP by the end. Minister Anand also highlighted Canada’s role in Latvia, where it leads a NATO battle group to defend against Russia.
“You have to make it clear that Canada is the alliance’s sixth largest defense contributor, and in terms of new money, Canada is one of the leaders,” she said. added.
There appears to be little political appetite in Ottawa for a major new injection of cash into the military beyond what has already been promised, especially as Justin Trudeau’s government faces pressure to spend more on other areas like health care.
75 billion dollars over five years?
The scale of spending required to meet the 2% target is also staggering: Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux has estimated that an additional $75 billion would be needed over the next five years.
Many countries also insist that it is the quality of their equipment and the amount of contributions that allies make to NATO operations that are most important. GDP percentages are also misleading indicators, as envelopes seem larger when economies are faltering.
Still, if other allies heed Stoltenberg’s call and try to toughen the spending target, it will put real pressure on Canada, said defense analyst David Perry of the think tank the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Ottawa.
NATO is a consensus-based organization, which means that all members will have to agree to any change in the spending target. “And I think whatever criticism there is in Canada [à propos de la cible]other allies will take this step seriously,” Perry said.
Even without major new spending commitments, he believes Ottawa could start showing progress to allies if it was able to spend the money already earmarked for new military hardware in particular.
The Canadian Press reported last month that the Department of National Defense was unable to spend $2.5 billion of its approved budget last year, due to delays in various procurement projects and infrastructure.