A hidden message accompanied Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal when he set foot in Canada last April. The “airplane” and “praying hands” emojis discreetly appeared on the cabin of his civilian airplane. In the end, Ottawa only provided money, radios and small arms to the Ukrainian army during this official visit, but the insistence of the Ukrainian leaders to its allies ended up paying off.
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Friendly Canada???????? . A country among the first to stand by #Ukraine. Meetings with @JustinTrudeau and @cafreeland coming up. We are preparing new agreements and deals to strengthen the macro-financial and economic stability of ????????. We are working for victory. pic.twitter.com/X0EeaiJH2z
— Denys Shmyhal (@Denys_Shmyhal) April 11, 2023
The British Prime Minister pledged this week to create an “international coalition” to deliver Western fighter planes, namely the F-16s, to Kiev, combat jets far superior to those currently fighting in Ukraine. The Netherlands immediately announced their membership of this coalition. Shortly after, the French president “opened the door to train Ukrainian pilots” in NATO equipment.
But there’s a catch: all this fighting was waiting for the green light from Uncle Sam. [des priorités ukrainiennes]modern Western aircraft are about eighth,” US Deputy Defense Secretary Celeste Wallander dropped in late April when asked by elected officials.
On Friday, the coalition was finally able to gain real momentum. President Biden has offered support for “a joint initiative” for such deliveries, according to a senior White House official.
This so-called international coalition, however enthusiastic, could not take off without Washington’s agreement. This one has all the technological and diplomatic levers around these planes.
” [Les Européens] completely depend on American technology, on the one hand for the logistics of the parts, ”explains the former fighter pilot Jean-Christophe Noël, now a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations. “On the other hand, they are part of NATO. There is solidarity. They know that after the F-16, there are the F-35 [les avions de nouvelle génération qu’achètent les Européens]. If the Americans don’t like it, the latter can say to them: “You transfer these planes to people for whom we told you not to give them, if you do the same thing to us for the F-35s, we can forget about it.” »
This dependence is not without irritating the major European powers, who see it as a loss of “sovereignty” over their own army, adds Mr. Noël.
Giving wings to the Ukrainian counter-offensive
The arrival of Western fighter planes will be a game-changer in this conflict that has been frozen since last fall. The F-16s are among the bestsellers of the world’s military aircraft and outclass the Soviet-designed aircraft used by both Russians and Ukrainians to date.
“This modernized air force could first of all break the impasse in which we are. We would go from a conflict like the First World War, with a very tight front line where we hit each other all day long with guns and artillery, to a conflict like the Second World War, where the acquisition air superiority would make it easier to maneuver on the ground”, illustrates Jean-Christophe Noël.
An adviser to the Canadian Defense Department, who agreed to discuss the subject with THE Duty on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to do so, believes that the F-16s remain grounded for political and financial reasons more than technical ones.
“F-16s have been a great sign of American power for decades. If an F-16 is shot down by the Russians, there will probably be a lot more negative news reports about it than if a handful of [chars] Leopard are decommissioned. »
And above all, who will assume the dizzying cost of aircraft maintenance, pilot training and all these related costs that are likely to soar? “The United States ‘could’ in theory cover all the costs. But, they would prefer that other countries participate as well. »
This question remains unresolved.
Asked by The duty on whether or not to support the international coalition a little earlier this week, the office of the Canadian Minister of Defense did not respond either positively or negatively. “We will continue to identify a variety of military assistance options to help Ukraine fight and win,” the brief email replied. Canada doesn’t have any F-16s anyway, but it does have end-of-life CF-18s.
Only a handful of European countries actually have the F-16s requested by Ukraine, namely Belgium, Norway, the Netherlands and Denmark, according to the military analysts interviewed. And only the latter two have an air fleet sufficiently stocked to dispose of dozens of machines.
More than planes and pilots
This prior refusal by the Americans to increase the weight of the weapons delivered has been repeated several times since the start of the war. Long range weapons, air defenses and then recently tanks all remained out of the question until they weren’t.
However, the mouthful this time is much bigger to digest for an army like that of Ukraine.
A whole paraphernalia of ultra-specialized systems surrounds the machines of the West, unlike Soviet-designed planes, which offer great autonomy to pilots. Training them is therefore not enough to deploy these advanced aircraft in Ukraine, explains Éric Ouellet, professor at the Royal Military College. “Modern warfare is network warfare. Their radars are connected to terrestrial radars. They exist with radar planes, and they all work together to find targets and protect planes. »
The spare parts logistics, mechanics, headquarters, and maintained (and secret) airstrips that must be deployed all stand in the way of F-16 integration into the Ukrainian military. .
Converting pilots familiar with Soviet planes to NATO maneuvers takes at least six months, estimates Jean-Christophe Noël, for whom any final decision must be taken unanimously by Westerners. “The goal of Europe and the West is to appear united against the Russians. […] If we go, it’s all together. »
Whatever the case may be, the Ukrainians will no doubt have to do without these modern planes for their spring counter-offensive, which has been awaited for months.