Thousands of Armenians continue to flee Nagorno-Karabakh, a few days after a lightning offensive which caused them to lose control of the territory. An explosion Monday evening at a gas station added to the chaos and reportedly left at least 20 dead and 300 injured.
The story so far
1991
The Republic of Artsakh declares independence from Nagorno-Karabakh, which is not internationally recognized.
1994
After six years of war, a ceasefire is concluded. Azerbaijan then lost control of part of Nagorno-Karabakh, and hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis fled the enclave. The conflict leaves some 30,000 dead.
2020
44-day war in the fall. Azerbaijani forces regain control of part of the territory. Some 6,500 people lost their lives.
2023
On September 19, Azerbaijan launched an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, in which at least 200 people died.
The explosion, the causes of which are unknown, occurred while many residents were queuing to obtain gasoline allowing them to leave the territory, hit by a blockade which caused shortages of fuel, food and medical equipment in the last 10 months.
The hospital which received the injured is overwhelmed, underlined Jason Straziuso, media team leader of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), contacted in Geneva.
“It is a priority for us that authorities in the region collaborate to allow medical evacuation of these patients to other facilities that are not overwhelmed or to facilities that have full staffing or equipment and medications to treat these burns,” explains Mr. Straziuso.
Staff from the organization are currently assisting the medical teams on site, he said, and the ICRC has also sent equipment for treating burns. And tried to bring more aid, human and material, into the region.
“It’s far from over”
For almost a week, more than 20,000 Armenians have reportedly left the enclave, which has been disputed for 30 years. Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but its ethnically Armenian inhabitants proclaimed independence in 1991, creating the “Republic of Artsakh” and governing itself.
There were 120,000 of them until September 20, when Azerbaijan regained control of the territory. The offensive lasted only 24 hours. The separatists capitulated, and a ceasefire was reached.
Since then, traffic jams have extended for several kilometers in the vicinity of the Lachin corridor, the only road allowing the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh to leave the territory and reach Armenia.
“It’s difficult, we saw people exhausted, but also very mentally affected,” says Hicham Diab, director of operations in Armenia for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), attached by telephone.
It’s difficult especially for children. They’ve come a long way already, but it’s far from over.
Hicham Diab, director of operations in Armenia of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
The IFRC has set up two reception points, in Goris and Kornidzor, to allow displaced people to register, receive water and food, and be directed to the right resources for the future. A priority is to reunite families: children have arrived without their parents.
The Federation quickly gathered 200 volunteers for these tasks. Like other organizations, it had prepared in recent months, seeing a new crisis on the horizon, after the blockade.
A “genocide”
Last December, Azerbaijanis posing as environmental activists began blocking the Lachin corridor. Then, on July 11, Azerbaijan officially closed access, citing security reasons.
The delivery of food and medicine has become particularly difficult. To the point where former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Luis Moreno Ocampo affirmed in August that a “genocide against the 120,000 Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as Artsakh, is underway”.
The Azerbaijani regime defended itself. “It is biased and distorts the real situation on the ground and represents significant factual, legal and substantial errors,” Hikmet Hajiyev, advisor to President Ilham Aliyev, told the Associated Press.
Although Mr. Aliev affirmed that the rights of Armenians would be “guaranteed” by his government if they chose to remain in Nagorno-Karabakh, organizations are preparing to welcome tens of thousands more displaced people.
“It is not a country that can be described as democratic, so there are real fears for what will happen with the Armenians who remain in Nagorno-Karabakh,” explains Magdalena Dembinska, full professor at the University of Montreal. . Fears about an autocratic president who is unpredictable and who does not follow human rights rules. »
Role of Russia
In the fall of 2020, Azerbaijan managed to regain control of a portion of Nagorno-Karabakh, after a 44-day war. The ceasefire was concluded under the aegis of Russia, which sent some 3,000 peacekeepers.
“It was seen as a victory in Azerbaijan, but an unfinished victory,” explains M.me Dembinska. Aliev had been testing for a while, in a way, to what extent Russian peacekeepers were going to do something, were going to respond to certain provocations made since 2021, like the ceasefire which is not respected and, then, the blockade. »
Russia’s inaction last week was denounced by Armenians. But in the context of the invasion in Ukraine, the interests of the Russian government have changed, notes the political scientist. Turkey is a powerful ally of Azerbaijan, and Russia has an interest in not irritating the Turkish regime, which has an “ambivalent” position in the war in Ukraine, she explains.
Hydrocarbon-rich Azerbaijan has made no secret of its ambitions to set up a corridor along Armenia’s southern border, creating a direct land link from the country to Turkey and the rest of Europe. A project feared by Armenia.
However, Azerbaijan is currently in a position of strength, believes Mme Dembinska.
With the arrival of tens of thousands of displaced people and discontent with the Armenian prime minister’s inaction to defend Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia could also experience a period of significant instability.
“Armenia is really in a bad situation,” summarizes M.me Dembinska.
With The world and Agence France-Presse