Moscow will have to choose between butter and cannons

Are sanctions against Russia useful? Yes. They are already hitting Vladimir Putin and his accomplices hard, and their effects on the Russian economy will increase over time.

Josep Borrell Fontelles
High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission

Since Russia deliberately violated international law by invading Ukraine, the European Union has adopted six sanctions packages against Moscow. Our measures now target nearly 1200 people and 98 entities in Russia as well as a significant number of sectors of the Russian economy. These sanctions were adopted in a coordinated manner with the members of the G7, including Canada. Their effectiveness is reinforced by the fact that more than 40 other countries (including traditionally neutral countries) have adopted them or taken similar measures.

By the end of 2022, we will have reduced our Russian oil imports by 90% and we are rapidly reducing our gas imports.

These decisions gradually free us from a dependency that has long inhibited our political choices in the face of Vladimir Putin’s aggressiveness.

This one probably believed that Europe would not dare to engage in the way of the sanctions because of its energy dependence. Among the many errors of judgment committed by the Russian regime in this conflict, this one is not the least. Admittedly, this rapid detoxification of Russian energy is also causing serious difficulties for many countries in the Union and for several sectors of activity. But it is the price to pay for defending our democracies and international law, and we are taking the necessary measures to face these problems in solidarity.

Russian imports

Fine, some will say, but do these sanctions at least really affect the Russian economy? The answer is yes. Because if Russia exports a lot of raw materials, it is also forced to import many products with high added value that it does not manufacture. For all advanced technologies, it depends 45% on Europe and 21% on the United States, against only 11% on China.

The oil industry suffers not only from the departure of foreign operators, but also from the difficulty of accessing advanced technologies such as horizontal drilling. The ability of Russian industry to bring new wells into production is likely to be limited. Finally, to ensure air traffic, Russia will have to withdraw a majority of its planes from circulation in order to recover the essential spare parts to allow others to fly. Added to this is the loss of access to financial markets, the cut off from major global research networks and a massive brain drain.

As for the alternative that China would offer for the Russian economy, it remains in reality limited, especially for high-tech products. So far, the government in Beijing, which is highly dependent on its exports to developed countries, has not essentially allowed Russia to circumvent Western sanctions.

Chinese exports to Russia have fallen in proportions comparable to those of Western countries.

Will these significant and growing impacts lead Vladimir Putin to change his strategic calculations? Undoubtedly not in the immediate future: its actions are not guided primarily by economic logic. By forcing him to choose between butter and guns, the sanctions lock him in a vice that gradually tightens.

Third country

There remains the impact of these sanctions on third countries, particularly in Africa, which depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat and fertilizers. Responsibility for the food crisis is clear: our sanctions in no way target Russian wheat or fertilizer exports, while Ukraine is prevented from exporting its wheat by the blockade of the Black Sea and the destruction caused by Russian aggression. If certain potential difficulties related to our sanctions should materialize, we are ready to put in place the appropriate mechanisms to respond to them. I informed my African counterparts of this while asking them not to be deceived by the untruths of the Russian authorities about our sanctions.

The real answer to the difficulties encountered in the world’s energy and food markets is the end of war. This cannot pass through the acceptance of the Russian diktat, but through the withdrawal of Russia from Ukraine. Respect for the territorial integrity of States and the non-use of force are not Western or European principles. They are the foundation of all international law. Russia happily tramples them. Accepting such a violation would open the door to the law of the jungle on a global scale.

Contrary to what we thought with a certain naivety a few years ago, economic interdependence does not automatically imply a pacification of international relations. This is why the transition to a Europe-power, which I have been calling for since the beginning of my mandate, is imperative. Faced with the invasion of Ukraine, we have started to move from intention to action by showing that, when provoked, Europe can respond. As we do not want to go to war with Russia, economic sanctions now form the core of this response. They are already beginning to make their effects felt and they will do so even more in the coming months.