Moscow tries to manipulate the results

The European Parliament will vote on Wednesday on a resolution to denounce Moscow’s interference in Moldova, because Russia is using significant human and financial resources to manipulate the results of the elections scheduled for the end of October.

As Moldova prepares for a presidential election and a referendum on its membership of the EU on October 20, Moscow is actively working to defeat this referendum and discredit current President Maia Sandu. Moldovan prosecutors and police have revealed illegal mechanisms orchestrated from the Kremlin to corrupt voters.

Russia uses significant human and financial resources to manipulate the results of the D-Day polls. It is clear that Moscow wishes to maintain its influence over this former Soviet republic, while Moldova has been presided over since 2020 by a pro-European president who supports Ukraine openly.

In the context of this war in Ukraine, controlling Moldovan politics would be one more lever available to the Kremlin to put pressure on Europe. Furthermore, Moldova is located between Romania and Ukraine, and includes a separatist region, Transnistria, where Russian troops are still stationed, officially for a peacekeeping mission.

Furthermore, a political victory in Moldova would be a welcome symbolic victory for the Russian authorities vis-à-vis their population, while the war in Ukraine continues painfully. In this sense, the failure of the referendum could be a first step towards blocking Moldova’s European integration, and perhaps ultimately towards the arrival of a pro-Russian government.

To achieve these goals, the main vector of Russian influence is the fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor. A former member of the Moldovan Parliament, the businessman fled the country after being sentenced to 15 years in prison in a bank fraud case. Based in Moscow, he is now accused of having orchestrated illegal party financing mechanisms and voter corruption, in complicity with Russian banks. Prosecutors estimate he spent, via Russia, about $15 million in recent weeks. With this money, 130,000 Moldovans would have been paid to vote “no” in the referendum on EU membership and to support a pro-Russian candidate in the presidential election.

To understand the links between Ilan Shor and Russia, we can refer to political analyst Andrei Curararu: “He obtained Russian citizenship, he explains, all the party congresses with which he is in contact are in Russia. He has very good contacts with the authorities there and maintains an absolutely anti-European and absolutely pro-Russian position.”

Russia also invests in disinformation campaigns, whether via social networks, Russian-speaking media or Google advertisements. Finally, certain destabilizing actions were carried out to sow confusion. For example, some public institutions were vandalized and small demonstrations aimed at spreading conspiracy theories were organized.