The Kremlin reacted cautiously on Tuesday to the remarks of the Ukrainian president who the day before opened the door to talks with Moscow, for the first time since spring 2022, by mentioning a Russian presence at a future peace summit.
Volodymyr Zelensky assured on Monday that he was in favour of Moscow’s presence at a future summit, after the conference organised in Switzerland in mid-June on peace in Ukraine which brought together dozens of leaders, but from which Russia was excluded.
“The first peace summit was not a peace summit at all. So, apparently, we must first understand what he (Mr. Zelensky) means by that,” Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with Zvezda TV channel, broadcast on Tuesday.
Mr Zelensky has said he wants to present in November – the month of the US presidential election – a “plan” for “a just peace”, after nearly two and a half years of a large-scale conflict that has claimed hundreds of thousands of victims.
He also said he hoped that “Russian representatives” would participate in the next summit on peace in Ukraine at an unspecified date.
Russia still occupies almost 20% of Ukrainian territory and prospects for a ceasefire remain minimal.
However, this is the first time since the failure of talks in the spring of 2022, in the wake of the Russian assault on February 24, that Volodymyr Zelensky has raised the idea of discussions with Moscow without a prior Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory.
The Ukrainian president did not mention the cessation of hostilities, but the establishment of “a plan” in three areas: the energy security of Ukraine, whose infrastructure has been ravaged by Russian bombing, free navigation in the Black Sea, a key issue for Ukrainian exports, and prisoner exchanges.
On the front, no decisive breakthrough by either side is in sight.
The Russian army, which is larger and has superior firepower, is slowly gaining ground in the east of the country, at the cost of heavy losses in soldiers and equipment.
American election
Ukraine, led by Volodymyr Zelensky, regularly repeats that it wants to regain its sovereignty over all occupied territories, including the Crimean peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014.
The Kremlin, for its part, has so far ruled out any peace talks until Ukraine gives up the five regions that Moscow claims to annex and renounces its alliance with the West. This would amount to a de facto capitulation.
The West, which is arming kyiv, believes that it is up to Ukraine to decide when and under what conditions discussions with Russia could take place.
“If they want to invite Russia to the summit, we will support them,” said US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller on Monday, while adding that the Kremlin shows no sign of wanting a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
The outcome of the presidential election in the United States, Ukraine’s main ally, could play a significant role in the course of the conflict.
Republican Donald Trump, who has praised Vladimir Putin’s policies in the past, has promised to end the war within weeks if elected, raising fears that he will cut back on U.S. aid, which is now essential support for Ukraine.
” No reason “
Political scientist Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Zelensky’s announcement followed “the consolidation of the international community’s position” at the summit in Switzerland, with dozens of countries taking up Kiev’s cause.
Before Mr Zelensky, he recalls, other Ukrainian officials had mentioned the possible participation of Russians in a second summit to “present them with an ultimatum”.
“The only concession, at present, is that Russia will be invited and that there will be discussions on how Russia should go, following Zelensky’s logic,” the expert believes, to AFP.
Skeptical, he considers on the one hand “improbable” that these Ukrainian declarations will lead to “concrete changes” on the diplomatic level, and believes on the other hand that “Russia has absolutely no reason to participate in diplomatic conferences at this stage”.
Several attempts at mediation and negotiations have already failed.
In the first weeks of the Russian attack in 2022, Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Belarus and then in Turkey to try to reach a peace agreement. In vain.
In February 2023, China, an ally of Russia, also presented its own initiative, without success.
Finally, kyiv and its allies rejected the call for Ukraine to cease fire launched by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Mr Putin’s only interlocutor within the EU, who visited Kiev and then Moscow in early July.