“Moscow is testing NATO, the United States, the European Union” and see “how far he can go”, analyzed Friday, January 21, on franceinfo, Dominique Moïsi, political scientist and geopolitician, special adviser to the Montaigne Institute, while the meeting between the heads of Russian and American diplomacy on Friday in Geneva did not lead to any tangible results.
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The two countries have agreed to continue the dialogue to try to find a solution to the Ukrainian crisis. Russia has assured that it has no intention of intervening militarily in Ukraine despite its deployment of soldiers and weapons. Dominique Moïsi believes that there is “a gap between the deployment of” Russian forces and “the mere threat of economic sanctions”. The consequence of this situation is that neighboring States “Are afraid” and wonder if “the West will be ready to defend the Baltic republics”, warns the geopolitician.
franceinfo: Russia is making demands that are impossible to meet. Why these demands, when Moscow knows very well that it is impossible?
Dominique Moisi: Moscow is testing us. Moscow is testing NATO, the United States, the European Union. He sees how far he can go. And he says to himself, maybe at some point, the more I ask for unacceptable things, the more the other side will agree to back down on a certain number of points. Perhaps after having asked for NATO troops to withdraw from Bulgaria and Romania, if I no longer ask for it and if I make small discreet incursions to consolidate my achievements in the Donbass, I will gain these points.
“It irresistibly evokes what was called in the days of the USSR, the salami strategy. We cut into very thin slices. And we progress. And at some point, it’s the whole salami that has disappeared.”
Dominique Moïsi, political scientist and geopoliticianat franceinfo
What are the means of pressure of the Americans?
America has placed too much emphasis, almost exclusively, on economic sanctions. There is a disconnect between what the Russians are doing, the deployment of their forces, and the mere threat of economic sanctions, even if they must be very severe. So, to bring about a de-escalation, it is a matter of dissuading the Russians as much as possible from intervening militarily, by making them feel that the military coup will be much greater than they themselves think. To bring about de-escalation, oddly, the United States must escalate on the ground by sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainians. This is what the British do in small quantities and, since today, the Baltic republics.
Isn’t there a risk that neighboring states will feel abandoned?
Totally. And they’re just scared. They say to themselves, after Ukraine, it’s us. They are infinitely more vulnerable than countries like Bulgaria or Romania. They only became independent from the USSR after the fall of the Berlin Wall. They are essentially fragile. And they say to themselves, if the West is not ready to defend Ukraine, will the West be ready to defend the Baltic republics?
Why did France and Germany in particular disappear from the negotiations?
Because, for the Russians, we don’t exist. It is all the vanity of the French efforts to resume the discourse with the Russians, but that does not interest them. What interests them is to humiliate America, to divide the West and to advance their cards.