Moscow is carefully following the French political crisis

The Russian press takes a positive view of the RN’s push, highlighting the far-right group’s fight against the European Union and active military support for kyiv.

The war in Ukraine had a strong impact on the European campaign and the outcome of the vote did not escape Moscow. The Kremlin, officially, has not commented on the surge of the far right in France and the calling of early legislative elections, considering that this is “an internal affair of France”, in the words of the spokesperson for the Russian presidency, Dmitri Peskov. But “We will monitor all this carefully, due to the extremely unfriendly, even hostile, attitude of French leaders towards our country”he however commented, as reported by the Russian government news agency Ria Novosti.

Not all political leaders have these language precautions. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, in his usual florid style, sent Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, “into the dustbin of history.”

“Peskov’s comments seem to indicate that they may have been a little surprised by the resultsunderlines, on France Culture, the journalist Paul Gogo, specialist in Russia. But PFor the Kremlin, it is necessarily very interesting, because it sees the people of the RN as relays of its rhetoric, at a minimum (…). An unexpected opportunity appears.” The French formation has certainly called for support for Ukraine since the start of the conflict, but it denounces the use of Western weapons on targets located on Russian territory. She also advocates an immediate peace solution, which could freeze de facto the occupation of the invaded Ukrainian territories.

“We are entering a period that will please the Kremlin”, summarizes with AFP Bertrand Badie, specialist in international relations at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. The parenthesis which has just been opened “will close at best at the beginning of July” at the end of the legislative elections, he adds, predicting in all cases “an objective weakening of French foreign policy and its capacity for action”.

Immediately, the Russian press welcomes the breakthrough of the far right in France, interpreted as a further step towards a weakening of the EU and the end of military support for Ukraine. “They don’t want to die for Ukraine: the French oppose sending troops to kyiv”enthuses the Russian weekly Argumenty i Faktywhich attributes the fiasco of the French majority to Emmanuel Macron’s declarations on the war.

Cohabitation would complicate decision-making in Paris, without completely changing French orientations, nuance Fyodor Loukyanov, political scientist interviewed in the article. Even so: “Russia will be happy with it.”

“The French undoubtedly feel a certain weariness faced with the weight of socio-economic and military support for Ukraine,” also notes political scientist Lioubov Bisson, interviewed by the RTVI channel. He believes that Emmanuel Macron’s latest statements on the hypothesis of a more active role for France in the conflict may have frightened voters.

Jordan Bardella often repeats that he “grew up on the streets and literally survived in a dirty and dangerous city plagued by drugs, organized crime and Islamist radicals”underlines the daily Komsomolskaya Pravda, about the MEP from Saint-Denis. And if he supports Ukraine, the daily reminds us all the same, he also relentlessly criticizes Emmanuel Macron “for his statements which threaten to directly involve France in an armed conflict”. The newspaper also emphasizes the candidate’s anti-EU positions and his rejection of an expansion of the union.

In March, the president of the RN nevertheless demanded on franceinfo the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, on the base, “initially, from the initial border before the outbreak of war in early 2022”.

But he also added that Crimea was “historically and culturally Russian, obviously”, a position already defended by Marine Le Pen since the annexation of 2014. Jordan Bardella’s comments were relayed by the pro-Kremlin Tass agency, in particular. It has also not escaped Russian observers that the RN opposed economic sanctions, and that it abstained on several occasions on texts supporting Ukraine.

The hypothesis of a resignation by Emmanuel Macron, raised Monday morning by Europe 1 before being denied by the person concerned, was particularly taken up and commented on on Telegram and in the Russian media. Despite everything, certain commentators sympathetic to the Kremlin’s theses do not seem to expect anything from the French elections. “We will see how President Macron and the Prime Minister try to coexist, concludes Andreï Perla, pro-Kremlin political commentator, quoted by the media Absatz. There will be no change in Paris’ policy towards Moscow. Le Pen will do nothing to prevent France from supplying weapons to Ukraine or sending military instructors.”

The RN very quickly denounced Russian aggression after the start of the war, but its real or supposed proximity to Russia regularly comes up. A report from the National Assembly’s commission of inquiry into foreign interference denounced in May 2023 the “privileged links with the Kremlin”as well as “ideological support and proximity” qualified as“undeniable” of the RN with the Kremlin. Marine Le Pen had denounced the work “politicized”.

The role of Thierry Mariani, just re-elected to the European Parliament, is also debated. Nicolas Sarkozy’s former Minister of Transport, regularly accused of being a proxy for the Kremlin, has never stopped going back and forth to Russia. “She is not a threat to France, nor to Europee”, he declared again on May 22 on Sud Radio.

“I cannot let you say that I take the position of a country which invaded a nation-state, which I condemned without the slightest ambiguity and which today threatens my country”, defended Jordan Bardella on France 2, just before the European elections. His list received 25% of the votes at the Moscow polling station, ahead of those of François Asselineau (18.83%), Marion Maréchal (13.23%) and Florian Philippot (9.67%). Out of a total of 393 votes cast, of course, and with 83% abstention.