The principle of the Queen’s speech is to symbolize precisely the unity of the Kingdom, and of the four nations that make it up: England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland. And in the case of the last two, the hypothesis of seeing them leave the kingdom one day is now very real. In Northern Ireland, for the first time since the end of the civil war in 1998, Irish nationalists, in favor of the reunification of the two Irelands, came out on top in the local elections. The count, always very slow there, ended on Sunday May 8. And Sinn Fein, which was for a long time the political arm of the former Irish Republican Army (IRA), is therefore now the leading party in the province, with 27 elected. He will therefore inherit the post of Prime Minister. It is also the consequence of a slow demographic evolution: the Catholics are gradually more and more numerous in Northern Ireland, they make more children than the Protestants, traditional supports of the unionists favorable to the maintenance in the United Kingdom. Admittedly, this success of Sinn Fein is to be put into perspective: it prevails above all because the unionist parties are divided. Nevertheless, the symbol is strong. And the leadership of Sinn Fein, in Southern Ireland, promises a referendum within 5 years on a reunification of the two Irelands.
In Scotland, it could go even faster: the local elections have just confirmed the domination of the separatists of the SNP, the Scottish National Party. 453 elected, up and far ahead of the British parties, whether Labor (282 elected) or the Conservatives (214). The leader of the SNP Nicola Sturgeon, therefore, comes out of this election reinforced. And she is already promising a new referendum on self-determination by the end of next year. In 2014, a first vote resulted in a fairly clear majority of 55/45 in favor of remaining in the Kingdom. And today, the government of London refuses the organization of a new poll. But the teams of Scottish National Party lawyers are working hard to justify the organization of a new referendum. They could make their findings public in the coming month. The SNP is convinced that the unpopularity of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will work in favor of Scottish independence. In both cases, Northern Ireland and Scotland, these secessionist tendencies are also a direct consequence of Brexit. The Scots want to return to the European Union. And in Northern Ireland, the situation only holds because “the Northern Irish protocol” in fact fixed the border between Europe and the United Kingdom, not between the two Ireland, but more between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
So what will the Queen say tuesday 10 may ? First, it is in fact only the mouthpiece. She reads the London government’s policy speech. Boris Johnson will therefore seek, through the voice of the monarch, to divert attention. Attacking the European Union, as often happens, and talking about something else: bills on purchasing power, on university fees, on the privatization of the television channel Channel 4. But the real subject from now on, it is indeed, in the long term, the maintenance of the cohesion of the United Kingdom. And to make matters worse, it is not even certain that the speech is delivered by the Queen. Given her fragile state of health, she could be replaced by her son Prince Charles. Quite a symbol.