According to a poll for “Le Journal du dimanche” and Sud Radio, the desire to express dissatisfaction remains the main driver of the RN vote.
They are now 42%. More than 4 out of 10 French people have voted at least once for the National Rally, according to a study by the Ifop-Fiducial Institute for The Sunday newspaper and Sud Radio published on Sunday June 18. They were 35% in 2021 and 30% in 2017, a sign of a continued anchoring of the far-right party. In the presidential election of 2022, Marine Le Pen had certainly obtained nearly 41.5% of the vote against Emmanuel Macron, but due to the strong abstention, this score actually represents only 27.26% of those registered.
Among those who have already slipped an RN ballot into the ballot box, workers (57%) and poor categories (51%) are over-represented. More surprisingly, 28% of left-wing supporters, or 27% of people who chose Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2022, say they have already voted for the National Rally. The study underlines that the desire to express one’s dissatisfaction remains the main driver of the RN vote (24%), more than adherence to the observation made by the far-right party on the state of the country (15%). The RN vote is more in rejection of other parties (for 61% of voters) than in support of the party (39%).
A party less and less perceived as racist
Among these voters, they are 85% to find justice too lax, 82% to think that France is a country of Christian culture or 77% to affirm that the country is in decline. They are also 89% to believe that democracy is the only acceptable form of government and 78% to consider it normal that homosexual couples can marry. According to this poll, 50% are also in favor of reinstating the death penalty.
Sign of a tendency to de-demonize the image of the party, 59% of those questioned qualify the National Rally as a racist party, a figure that has fallen sharply since 2017 (68%). And 55% think it is dangerous for democracy, compared to 62% 6 years ago. Conversely, 50% say he has a vision of the future for France, compared to 40% in 2017. And 47% believe him capable of governing France, compared to 39% 6 years ago.
The survey also highlights the limits of Marine Le Pen, unsuccessful three-time presidential candidate: only 23% of those polled give her presidential stature. In total, 41% of those questioned want Marine Le Pen to win in 2027. Among the possible alternatives to the historic leader of the far-right party, the current president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, seems best placed: 30 % of people questioned would be ready to vote for him in the next presidential election.
* Survey carried out on the internet from June 12 to 15 among 1,314 people who have already voted for the National Rally, extracted from a sample of 3,008 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method, with a margin of error between 1.4 and 3.1 points.