The general opinion is that François Legault is leading a very ordinary campaign, the polite expression that we use, not to say “mediocre”. But after four weeks of campaigning and two debates, it is becoming clear that the opposition parties will not be able to trip him up.
Posted at 6:00 a.m.
The division of the opposition vote between four parties could mean that the Coalition avenir Québec could end up with a super-majority of 75 or 80% of the seats in the National Assembly with less than 40% of the votes.
Three of the four leaders of the opposition parties are not at all certain of being elected in their riding, the exception being Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois in Gouin. The official opposition has every chance of staying in the Liberal Party because of its strongholds on the West Island, but possibly without its leader.
Under the circumstances, the opposition will be extra-parliamentary and it will be more and more obvious that it will come from the municipal world. Let us be clear, this will not be an opposition in the traditional sense of the term.
But the elected municipal officials of this new generation do not hide it: their priorities are at odds with those of the Legault government. Development at all costs gives way to sustainable development. Urban sprawl is countered by the densification of central districts. The all-in-the-car is outdone by public transport.
These mayors are almost all from a new generation of politicians for whom the municipal is a place of power rather than the antechamber that allows them to prepare for their transition to a higher order.
In the past, it was seen as a promotion for a mayor to be elected MP in Quebec or Ottawa.
Today, it is not uncommon to see a deputy resign to run for mayor. It’s not so much a question of prestige as of being in the level of government that is closest to the citizens and where we can do more and more easily for their quality of life.
No wonder, then, that these mayors do not see themselves as “creatures of the provinces”. They are even ready to use their political force to change the mind of a prime minister who refused to listen to them.
On September 13, François Legault opposed a plea of inadmissibility to a request expressed by the mayor of Montreal, Valérie Plante. A $2 billion investment plan to adapt infrastructure to climate change. Three days later, he opened the door a little, acknowledging the need to improve infrastructure.
It probably didn’t hurt that the day before, it had rained more in one afternoon than the average precipitation for the whole of September. But what made him change his mind was not so much the deluge as the political pressure from the mayors.
The fact remains that the environment remains the CAQ’s blind spot, as evidenced by the whole debate on the third link in Quebec. A saga that would be comical if the stakes weren’t so high. After several versions of the Prime Minister on the studies supporting the tunnel project, Mr. Legault, weary, had to admit that, regardless of the results of expert studies, the decision was political and had therefore already been made. .
Obviously, the mayors will not have a monopoly on the extra-parliamentary opposition. Trade unions, for example, are used to playing this role in their sector. But mayors will always have an advantage: they are elected, just like deputies. And their mandate therefore has the same political legitimacy.
It will be increasingly difficult for the government to play cities against each other or withhold funding from one project to sell another. The voters see more and more clearly in such maneuvers and no longer accept this petty policy.
But above all, the priorities of citizens have changed and the cities, which constitute local governments, will be much more in tune with the demands of their constituents than the Government of Quebec.
Thus, when we see the mayor of Laval, Stéphane Boyer, dreaming aloud of car-free neighborhoods in a city where “everything by car” was the norm until very recently, we understand that things have changed a lot and that politicians like Mr. Legault are no longer on the right side of this debate.
Similarly, the Legault government has not shown much interest in the housing crisis that has been raging for years and which has caused the vacancy rate to drop to less than 1% in several cities in Quebec.
He is trying to recover during the election campaign by promising 11,700 new social housing units at a cost of $1.8 billion. Once again, the mayors have been denouncing his inaction for a long time.
It is therefore to be expected that his new extra-parliamentary opposition will hold him to account on this dossier, and on many others, over the next four years.