Every day, the correspondents’ club describes how the same current event is illustrated in two countries.
This year should mark the return of an uninhibited relationship between South Africa and Russia. Pretoria refuses to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continues to maintain good relations with Moscow. Vladimir Putin could also be present in South Africa in August for the BRICS summit (Brazil, India, China, South Africa). An invitation that has been controversial since the head of the Kremlin is targeted by an international arrest warrant. At the same time, if Brazil has so far adopted a position of neutrality in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the election of Lula seems to change the situation somewhat.
Intense political exchanges between Russia and South Africa
Observers in the country are racking their brains to find out if Vladimir Putin will dare to come to Pretoria in August for the BRICS summit and if the South African government will ignore the International Criminal Court by receiving a man suspected of a war crime. South Africa, which claims to be neutral in the Ukrainian conflict, would undeniably fall into the pro-Russian camp.
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For the South African journalist Peter Fabricius, specialist in international relations, Western countries could see red: “We are seeing a slow deterioration in relations with the European Union. They are not terrible, but it seems that the United States and the European Union are becoming less and less tolerant. Welcoming Vladimir Putin to South Africa would be a blow of course very badly perceived by them.”
The BRICS summit in August is likely to be a very anti-Western event, the weekly worries The Sunday Times. In its editorial last week, the newspaper said it feared that the BRICS summit would turn into an anti-Western high mass, even though the European Union and the United States are leading trading partners. South Africa dreams of a strong BRICS group, which would counterbalance American domination and in particular its currency, the dollar. The creation of a common currency for the BRICS should also be discussed in August.
We might be heading towards a replay of Pretoria’s failure to arrest Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir, writes @msmkokeli https://t.co/waddWVkSNW
— Sunday Times (@SundayTimesZA) March 26, 2023
If Vladimir Putin does not come to South Africa, the South African government will go to him. Political exchanges are intense between the two countries. At the end of March, a group of deputies from the ANC, the party in power, was also in Moscow. “We will continue to support the Russian people,” even declared the President of the National Assembly. Before the BRICS, there will be the Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg in July. Another opportunity to show the rest of the world that for South Africa, Russia is a powerful ally and not a plague victim.
Lula defends the creation of a “peace club”, outside the West
Since the start of the conflict, Brazil has not been among the countries applying sanctions against Vladimir Putin. Russia is a major commercial partner of Brazil, supplying in particular fertilizers for the Brazilian agribusiness, and commercial relations between the two countries have been maintained despite the war. But since coming to power earlier this year, President Lula has spoken out against the conflict, going so far as to say Russia made a “historic mistake” by invading Ukraine. In January, however, Lula vetoed the German request to send arms to Ukraine.
Even if the Brazilian president did not participate in the “Democracy Summit”, organized by Joe Biden, Lula dreams of mediating peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. He defends the creation of a “peace club”, outside the West, including countries like China, India and Indonesia. A way for Brazil to reintegrate into the international political scene, after isolation during the Bolsonaro government.
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Lula will make his first official trip to China this month, and the two leaders are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine. It is an important trip for commercial relations between the two countries, but also for Brazilian diplomacy, which wants a revival of the BRICS. Former President Dilma Roussef took over the presidency of the BRICS bank in March.
The Brazilian president finds himself in a delicate position to maintain neutrality in the war in Ukraine. Because even if China does not supply arms to Russia, the two leaders are close. Xi Jinping, visiting Moscow two weeks ago, once again positioned himself as a mediator in the conflict. But led by Beijing, these peace negotiations could favor Russia and threaten Brazilian neutrality. In February, during the UN General Assembly, Brazil was the only BRICS country to vote for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. In the potential “peace club” desired by Lula, therefore, different visions of this resolution of the conflict coexist.