Three Russian cruise missiles used Moldova’s airspace on Monday (October 10th) as Russia struck Ukraine heavily. In any case, this is what Nicu Popescu, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of this small independent republic since 1991 and the size of a French region, asserts. The three missiles were fired from buildings on the Black Sea and were probably aimed at the Lviv region in western Ukraine, with Moldova lying exactly in between.
Three cruise missiles launched on Ukraine this morning from Russian ships in the Black Sea crossed Moldova’s airspace.
I instructed that Russia’s ambassador be summoned to provide an explanation.
—Nicu Popescu (@nicupopescu) October 10, 2022
The Russian ambassador has been summoned by the Moldovan authorities, but that won’t change much, because Moldova has few means of action. First of all, it has very few military means. It has only 5,000 active soldiers, including less than a thousand in the Air Force. Its air resources are very weak: a dozen helicopters, no real anti-aircraft batteries, no drones. In short, no interception capability. Moldova is a partner in NATO, the Western Defense Alliance, but is not a member. Last spring, the UK in particular promised to step up logistical aid to Chisinau, the Moldovan capital. But at this stage, the means of small Moldova remain very limited.
And opposite, the Russian threat is real. Moldova is one of those geographical areas that Putin considers to be part of greater Russia. And this is really one of the possible areas of extension of the conflict. Especially since for 30 years, a whole part of the country has seceded: the small band of Transnistria, pro-Russian, between Moldova and Ukraine. 4,000 km2, 450,000 inhabitants, and above all the stationing base for 1,500 Russian soldiers. It is very close to the big city of Odessa in the southwest of Ukraine. For many months, the CIA has looked at Transnistria as a kind of aircraft carrier inland, an outpost of Moscow, likely to be the anchor point for an extension of the conflict and a pincer grip of Ukraine from the South.
Last May, the area had also been shaken by artillery fire, which had raised fears of the worst. At the time, Moscow had finally retreated in the area, giving up attacking the port of Odessa. And since Transnistria alone cannot play a sufficient military role to allow the Russian army to advance in the area, fears had faded somewhat. But Russian ships, and probably also Russian submarines, are numerous in the Black Sea, right next to it, with more than thirty surface ships.
At the same time, Moldova is seeking to join the European Union. Brussels looks at Moldova in much the same way as Ukraine. When the Europeans granted Ukraine EU candidate status at the end of June, they did the same with Moldova. The European Union has also released significant funds for Chisinau: 13 million for emergency humanitarian aid, 150 million for loans and subsidies, and a total absence of customs duties for a lot of agricultural products, until next summer. The Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, is also a convinced pro-European. But this political desire for Europe does not protect Moldova from Russian military actions.