Midterm elections | Your questions, our answers

What will be the impacts of the results of the midterm elections in the United States? What should we fear or anticipate? During a chat on Wednesday, editorialist Alexandre Sirois answered questions asked by our readers. Here are the highlights.

Henri Ouellette-Vezina
The Press

Do the Democrats benefit from Joe Biden running for re-election in 2024 or leaving his place to another candidate?

Alexander Sirois: This is the question that currently kills. But basically, everything will depend on the final results of the mid-term elections. If Republicans take over both houses of the US Congress, we can expect Joe Biden’s leadership to be challenged more in the coming months. However, knowing that the Democrats have nevertheless exceeded expectations – since some predicted a thaw for them – it is also possible that Joe Biden’s potential successors will be a little embarrassed and leave him the choice to decide whether he will run for re-election. 2024 or not. Moreover, Mr. Biden has not yet given an official answer on this subject. This is highly anticipated. Asked about this yesterday, he reaffirmed his “intention” to run for a second term in 2024, while specifying that he will confirm his decision “at the beginning of next year”.

Donald Trump has already begun to inflame social media over voter fraud. Some envisage a civil war. Do you believe it?

Alexander Sirois: Indeed, several pundits have uttered the words “civil war” over the past few years. It would be naïve to brush aside their fears out of hand, but we’re not there yet. Note also that they do not evoke a conflict as serious as the Civil War in the 19th century.^e century. What happened on January 6, 2021 gives us a good idea of ​​the kind of slip-ups that can happen when politicians play with matches next to a powder keg. However, the erosion of democratic standards is already of great concern. The fact that many Republican candidates in the midterm elections have questioned the results of the 2020 election is in itself problematic, especially since some of its candidates have even refused to say whether they will recognize their own defeat. The survival of American democracy depends on adhering to the norms that allow it to survive. So defeated candidates who talk about voter fraud are playing a very dangerous game, like Donald Trump.

The Democrats appealed to Barack Obama during the campaign. But why haven’t we seen more Kamala Harris?

Alexander Sirois: Barack Obama remains the most popular Democratic politician in the United States. His presence during the campaign was therefore unavoidable. There are even some elected officials who were thrilled to be seen alongside him and probably wouldn’t have wanted to campaign alongside Joe Biden. It gives an idea of ​​his fame. The same cannot be said for Kamala Harris, alas. During the Democratic Party leadership race, she had performed below expectations. And since becoming vice president, she hasn’t aroused much enthusiasm either. So, we can believe that his presence during the campaign would not have been an asset for the Democratic candidates, at the very least certainly not as much as that of Barack Obama.

Should we expect major changes in the position of the United States vis-à-vis Ukraine?

Alexander Sirois: Some Republicans, including House Leader Kevin McCarthy, have already said publicly that they believe the United States is giving too much importance to this conflict. Expect heartbreaking debates among Republicans, where traditionally there are many foreign policy hawks who will staunchly oppose Republicans wanting US support for Ukraine to be toned down. But ultimately, I doubt the makeup of the next Congress will have any real effect on US support for Ukraine and President Zelensky.

Is it possible that Republicans will come to think that the Trump era is running out of steam and set their sights on Ron DeSantis in Florida?

Alexander Sirois: Yes, Ron DeSantis was a big winner in the midterm elections this year. With a lead of some 20 percentage points over his Democratic rival, it is an impressive result to say the least. So yes, we have to expect some Republicans to think that they will have a better chance of winning with him than with Donald Trump in 2024. But let’s not forget that Trump remains extremely popular with a large fringe of the Republicans and that he reigns terror within the party. In other words, anyone who dares to oppose him pays the price. The best example is Liz Cheney, whose political career has just come to an abrupt end. Perhaps, therefore, DeSantis will decide not to confront Trump. This will be followed very closely.