At the start of the summer, the Republican Party was heading for a decisive victory in the US Congress in the midterm elections, scheduled for November 8.
Posted at 5:00 p.m.
History does not generally favor the party and the president in office at the White House during this electoral appointment. Moreover, these elections were already seen as a referendum on the balance sheet of President Joe Biden. With the chaotic exit from Afghanistan in July 2021, skyrocketing inflation and an approval rating of less than 35%, one could predict the stars were aligned for Republicans.
However, the situation changed on June 24. The highly controversial judgment of the Supreme Court of the United States concerning abortion was announced. This had an immediate impact on public opinion.
Since 1972, the judgment Roe v. wade made access to abortion constitutional and more than 60% of Americans wanted the Supreme Court to maintain the status quo.
Beginning with the June 24 judgment, several states under the leadership of Republicans have acted to restrict or eliminate access to abortion. For Democrats, this situation has breathed new life into the political dynamic.
Since then, the Joe Biden administration has pulled off various legislative stunts in Congress with the passage of certain bills concerning gun control, investments in the semiconductor industry and electronic chips aimed at being more competitive with China, in addition to the law to reduce inflation, including additional investments to fight against climate change and measures to make certain medications more accessible for seniors.
In August, the Justice Department obtained a warrant to search former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. Highly classified documents, several of which relate directly to the country’s national security, were found. While Mr. Trump still holds a firm grip on the Republican Party, these developments have helped put his party on the defensive.
In short, less than two months from the midterm elections, the Democrats now have the hope of creating a surprise.
The threat and the enemy: unheard of!
1er September, President Biden spoke to the nation to directly attack his predecessor and his supporters, whom he refers to as the “Republican MAGAs” who pose a “threat to democracy”. He called them “semi-fascists” and he indicated that the midterm elections will be a struggle to save the soul of the nation, nothing less!
Clearly, this was an exercise in political partisanship that did nothing to help unify the country. And it was to be expected that Trump would respond scathingly, which he did at a rally in Pennsylvania two days later, calling Biden an “enemy of the state.”
It is the first time that an incumbent president and his predecessor have railed against each other in such provocative and incendiary terms.
For Trump, this retort against Biden was also one against the Department of Justice and the FBI following the search of Mar-a-Lago. He even called the FBI a “vicious monster.”
For Biden, all of these developments have possibly turned the “referendum on the incumbent president” into a duel between the current president and his predecessor, to the great satisfaction of his strategists.
Democrats bounce back
The latest polls show some rebound for Democrats. They now enjoy a slight lead in voting intentions for the November elections. Also, President Biden’s approval rating jumped five points to 42.7% in one month. And above all, the voting intentions of independent voters (neither Democrats nor Republicans) jumped nine points in favor of the Democrats.
Moreover, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll, 67% of Americans say they consider American democracy to be “in danger”. This certainly does not harm Joe Biden’s party!
Then, the cancellation of Roe v. wade seems to continue to consolidate Democratic voting intentions. Another recent poll, this time conducted by the wall street journalindicates that attacks on the right to abortion would further motivate 83% of Democrats to exercise their vote on November 8, against 31% for Republicans.
Quite recently, various electoral events have brought an additional dose of hope to the Democrats. Among these, the former Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, who openly claims to be “pro-Trump”, suffered defeat in Alaska.
Finally, some pro-Trump candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio and Georgia are trailing in voting intentions. Early summer predictions are now being challenged, and with good reason.