About two months before the midterm elections in the United States, former President Donald Trump is still very present on the political and media scenes. He dominates American news due to several topics, such as the numerous ongoing investigations, controversies with his political opponents, his dominance over the Republican Party and the possibility of a new presidential candidacy in 2024.
Posted at 6:00 p.m.
The recent search by the FBI at his personal residence in Mar-a-Lago, where numerous documents deemed highly confidential, even “top secret”, were recovered, suggests that the former president’s troubles with American justice are far to be finished.
The investigation into the events of January 6, 2021 by the Special Committee of Congress also spills a lot of ink on the behavior of Donald Trump and his desire to cling to power, despite the provisions of the American Constitution. A recent survey of wall street journal also indicates that nearly 60% of the American population wants the investigation to continue, nothing very reassuring for Mr. Trump.
Despite everything, the latter continues to impose himself within his political formation, while the season of the primaries which will make it possible to designate the candidates who will be in the running for the mid-term elections in November in full swing.
Most recently, Republican Representative Liz Cheney, a staunch opponent of Trump on the Special Committee of Congress, was defeated by a candidate with strong support from the 45e President. Some observers estimate that 85% of candidates supported by Trump will run to represent the Republican Party in the next election.
In short, Donald Trump still enjoys a solid footing in the American political spectrum. In the short term, his disappearance from the political scene seems unthinkable.
Beyond Trump
It must be recognized that the controversies and successes of Donald Trump represent a double-edged sword. Admittedly, he dominates in the media, but he is causing more and more discomfort among certain Republican influencers, some of whom come from his direct base.
Already, several observers are beginning to speculate on a list of potential candidates to represent the Republican Party in the 2024 presidential election. This includes its former vice-president, Mike Pence, the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and the Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. It would therefore be wrong to think that Trump will not encounter obstacles, even if the cult of personality around him could suggest that the path is already marked out. The fact remains, however, that Trump is at the root of a larger non-conformist political movement, Trumpism.
This current is largely defined by the personality and speech of Donald Trump. But it is also based on a vision and a thought of an America that is defined by the slogans “Make America Great Again” and “America First”, which translate into a call for populism from the conservative right.
On the international level, however, this approach rather sends a message meaning “America Alone” (America alone), while it gives way to a distrust of multilateralism and the prioritization of the interests specific to the United States.
Moreover, Trumpism questions the legitimacy of the election of the current President, Joe Biden, which took place in November 2020. According to Trump and his activists, this election was stolen. This obsession is the cornerstone of the January 6, 2021, uprising.
If Trump doesn’t run again in 2024, will Trumpism become a cause of the past? It is far from obvious. No doubt the suitors for his succession will not have the luxury of openly opposing him or ignoring his influence with Republican voters.
Trumpism without Trump?
Historically, midterm elections that follow the election of a new president end in losses for the party occupying the White House. With President Joe Biden’s unpopularity (his approval ratings hover around 40%), partly due to the highest rate of inflation in 40 years, many observers see the possibility that the Democrats could lose control of both chambers by november.
Moreover, Trump’s successes in favor of the candidates he supports during the primaries cause various reactions.
Some polls indicate that the Senate could remain under the leadership of the Democrats because of the weakness of some Republican candidates.
The races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Arizona are particularly to follow.
Donald Trump is reluctant to announce his intentions for the 2024 presidential election before the midterm elections. With ongoing investigations into him and a poor performance by the candidates he backed, the November elections may well mark the beginning of his decline, but not necessarily that of Trumpism.