It is customary in the media, on the eve of an important electoral meeting, to wonder what will be the question that will motivate, influence and possibly determine the outcome of the elections. In short, the “question of the ballot box”!
Posted at 3:25 p.m.
This quest for the decisive element of an election is taking up more and more space in pre-electoral analyses. Thus, on November 8, during the midterm elections in the United States, all observers are wondering what the question of the ballot box will be. Will there be one that will be dominant, even determining?
The many concerns of voters
The midterm elections are fast approaching. The main issue – the control of Congress – presents a great challenge for President Joe Biden and for the Democrats. At present, the polls remain in favor of the Republicans winning a majority in the House of Representatives. The recent rise of the Democrats, however, gives hope to the party of keeping the majority in the Senate, while a third of the seats are at stake in this chamber.
Ultimately, one can wonder if these elections will be a referendum on Joe Biden when his approval rate remains around 40% to 45%, but the question is not that simple.
With the highest inflation rate in 40 years, the economy remains a dominant concern. The increase in the cost of living hits the voter’s pocketbook, which has a direct effect on him. In addition, the recent decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut oil production will do nothing to dampen rising prices at the pump.
Admittedly, there are other important concerns in the American public space. Abortion-related issues, whose guaranteed access was overturned by the Supreme Court with its recent U-turn on the judgment Roe v. wade, are ubiquitous. And that seems to be motivating a lot of Democratic voters.
Added to this are the problems with the functioning of the immigration system, the increase in crime in major cities, the ongoing investigations into the events of January 6, 2021, and the recent searches at the residence of former President Donald Trump. These subjects mobilize media coverage and contribute to the suspense regarding the results of the November 8 elections.
The immigration file further complicates the situation. States associated with the Republican Party such as Florida, Texas and Arizona are making it a national issue by shipping migrants to cities well known for their inclusiveness and welcoming of undocumented migrants, such as New York and Boston. These actions are certainly highly controversial, but they are far from favoring President Biden’s party, as the immigration situation has worsened generally over the past year.
Moreover, the Democrats succeeded in transforming the question of American democracy into an electoral issue. The public hearings on the events of January 6 and the speech of some Republicans questioning the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 reinforce voters’ concerns about the state of democracy in their country. Recent polls indicate that the “survival of democracy” will be a main issue for many voters, which could serve as a favorable counterweight to Joe Biden’s troops.
The Senate, a key issue
Three weeks before the vote, and contrary to what was announced last June, no question of the ballot box predominates the news. It is in this context that the Senate becomes the most coveted battleground, but also the one whose outcome is the most complex to predict.
Currently, the 100 Senate seats are split equally between Democrats and Republicans, with 50 seats each.
As she presides over the Senate, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has the ability to break that tie in order to allow Democrats to legislate. This has served the Biden administration well over the past two years by enabling many legislative accomplishments. So losing control of the Senate would be a monumental setback for Mr. Biden’s training.
While multiple states are up for grabs, each race seems to have its dynamics. Most recently, Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell expressed reservations about Republican recruits and their skills. According to him, these recruits, who are largely supported by Donald Trump, could jeopardize the Republicans’ chances of taking control of the Senate.
In short, for the first time in a long time, it seems that there will be no question of the precise ballot box that will determine the fate of these midterm elections. This will certainly complicate analyzes and political perspectives between now and the next major electoral event, the presidential election of 2024.