Midterm elections in the United States | Democracy is the real issue

As the electoral campaign that should lead to the midterm elections in the United States draws to a close, it is fair to predict that the November 8 election will hold surprises for us.

JOHN PARISELLA
Visiting professor at CERIUM, former Québec delegate in New York and Washington, and special advisor at National

Since last spring, three waves of polls have shown that the electorate is particularly sensitive to upheavals in the news. Until mid-June, most polls predicted a victory, not to say a “wave”, of Republicans in both houses of Congress. Some even saw a repeat of President Bill Clinton’s defeat at the hands of the Republicans in 1994, or that of Barack Obama in 2010. In both cases, the economic difficulties and the unpopularity of the president in office after only two years have had a very significant effect.

The judgment handed down last June by the Supreme Court, which invalidated the old judgment Roe v. wade which provided access to abortion for 50 years, gave a second wind to the Democrats.

The polls showed a rise in the latter and several predicted a narrow victory for the Republicans in the House, accompanied by a strong probability that the Democrats will retain the Senate.

For ten days, the latest version of the polls indicates that the Republicans are regaining ground and that the question of inflation is becoming the main consideration by voters in several states.

Of the 435 seats at stake in the House of Representatives, the Republicans only have to overthrow five to take control of this chamber. Undoubtedly, the rise in the cost of living, and in particular of groceries and fuel, will be dominant in the choices of the electorate. As has been the case in the past with other presidents who have suffered losses in midterm elections, President Joe Biden has a low approval rating that hovers between 42% and 45%.

As for the Senate, the Republicans only have to win one of the 35 seats that are at stake (which represents a third of the 100 seats in the Senate) to control Congress and the legislative calendar for the second half. of the Biden administration’s tenure.

Senate: the advantage to the Republicans

A few days before the election, some of the most reputable polls suggest close races whose results could fall within the margin of error. Although economic issues seem to be among the main considerations for the electorate’s choices in the House of Representatives (despite a growth rate of 2.6% in the last quarter in the United States), we see that this is not not necessarily this issue that dominates the struggles in the Senate.

The seats currently held by the Democrats are to be watched, and in particular in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. As for the Republicans, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio are likely to be the most contested. The stakes in each of these states seem to be more about the personalities and skills of the candidates running and in some cases the outcome of a televised debate.

Also, the “Trump factor” is often involved. Because, former President Donald Trump does not skimp on very marked public interventions.

That said, it must be recognized that the Republicans have regained ground. The mobilization of their electorate and the organization of the field are determining factors that have favored them in recent weeks.

American Democracy: The Real Long-Term Challenge

The first signs of early voting indicate that we could have a record turnout. Beyond the economy, despite the possibility of a recession and the pervasiveness of runaway inflation, the crime rate, illegal immigration to the southern border, health care, the fallout from the judgment Roe v. wade, and gun control are also included. These are all topics that seem to strongly motivate voters.

The fact remains that one concern of the electorate concerns the future of American democracy. However, even if this priority seems to have suffered a setback in the latest polls since the rise made by the Democrats in September, it still remains in the game. We can also foresee that the aftermath of the elections is likely to revive the concerns of the population in this regard.

The most recent attack on House Speaker’s husband, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, is a reminder that violence sometimes lurks in politics. Then, to this day, Donald Trump and his staunchest supporters do not accept defeat in 2020 and continue to question the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s election.

The intense split between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, the questioning of the electoral process, the denial of Biden’s victory by several Republicans as well as the disputes concerning the events of January 6, 2021 will still be in the game after November 8. The results don’t matter!

In short, the results of these midterm elections will determine the control of Congress and the consequences for the 2024 presidential election. But, well beyond who will control Congress for the next two years, the real issue that risks dominating the American political spectrum in the medium to long term is presumably the state of democracy. Unfortunately, this does not bode well. Great challenges lie ahead for our neighbors to the south.