(Washington) At 76 today, Donald Trump could have chosen to write other memoirs or focus on his favorite sport, golf. But after losing the 2020 presidential election, he preferred to throw himself headlong into campaigning for the midterm elections and test his reputation as a kingmaker.
Posted at 12:20 a.m.
The Republican has supported fierce anti-abortionists, defenders of the theory that the presidential election was stolen from him or even parachuted personalities. But these controversial Senate candidates face challenges, and many Republicans are pointing the finger at the former president.
“Donald Trump is not a candidate in 2022, but his political future” hangs in the balance, John Hudak of the Brookings Research Center wrote in a recent blog post.
Mr. Trump’s plan to reshape the Republican Party in his image through this ballot will “make him either a loser or the leader of party policy for years to come,” said Mr. Hudak.
Several of the candidates Mr. Trump has chosen to endorse for the primaries have been seen as sabotaging possible easy wins for more moderate alternatives in key constituencies against Democrats.
Among his controversial picks are Mehmet Oz, a famous doctor catapulted to Pennsylvania and considered “out of touch”, and JD Vance in Ohio, who has spent most of his adult life in Silicon Valley. In Georgia, former American football star Herschel Walker must respond to charges of domestic violence.
“Little to gain”
Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who only needs one seat to take the upper house from Democrats, has hinted that he sees “candidate quality” as an issue.
If “Senate candidates like Walker, Oz, Vance […] end up losing” and that the majority remains in the hands of the Democrats in the Senate, “Mr. Trump will be largely blamed”, slice for his part Mr. Hudak.
A bad election night for Donald Trump’s candidates would give his Republican rivals for the 2024 presidential race a hard time, which could include his pet peeve Liz Cheney, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and the former vice president. Mike Pence.
apart from M.me Cheney, right-wing presidential hopefuls have continued to spare Donald Trump.
But the likes of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo may be emboldened by poor results on Nov. 8.
For David Greenberg, professor of history and media at Rutgers University, the ex-president has only “little to gain” from the mid-term elections.
“But Trump has a lot to lose because if his candidates end up in a flash in the pan, then he will be seen as having lost his magic,” Greenberg told AFP.
“Some primary voters in 2024 might think twice about backing him again, especially if a popular alternative like DeSantis also comes forward. »
Of course, the game is not over and perhaps Trump’s most divisive candidates will win hands down.
“Undisputed leader”
Either way, analysts point out that many of the former president’s base pay little heed to the Senate or Washington’s political calculations.
“Despite his (presidential) defeat, two impeachment proceedings, nearly a dozen serious criminal investigations, and countless scandals that would have long since sunk most other politicians, Trump remains the undisputed leader of the Republican Party.” , says political scientist Nicholas Creel.
“Support for Trump within the Republican Party is far too resilient to be damaged by a poor party performance in November.”
Other observers, however, expect the tycoon’s many legal woes, including the scandal over his mishandling of classified government documents, to weigh as much on his political prospects as the performance of his midterm election picks. .
For Irina Tsukerman, a geopolitical analyst based in New York, Mr. Trump is increasingly seen as a “political burden” incapable of winning a future presidential election, even against a weak Democrat.
“Overall, it looks like he will be strongly discouraged from running in 2024, which he may not do for his own reasons, like avoiding any embarrassment and keeping the money he is currently raising” , she told AFP.
Contacted by AFP, Mr. Trump’s services had not reacted.