(Paris) Tourists are deserting the Middle East due to the war between Israel and Hamas, a situation likely to particularly weaken Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt, whose economies are dependent on the spending of international visitors.
In Petra, a wonder of the Jordanian desert which attracted 900,000 tourists last year, “you will see only a few visitors, even though it was crowded” at the beginning of October and the season was “extraordinary”, laments Amer Nezami, 46 year old tourist guide.
“Organized trips including Jordan, the West Bank and Israel have completely stopped, and dozens of reservations for stays have been canceled, particularly for groups coming from the United States,” he told AFP.
At the reception of the Petra Palace Hotel, Safi Nawafleh confirms that the number of customers in the city’s main establishments “has fallen by 25% to 50%… and some small hotels have no one.”
On October 7, the Islamist organization Hamas carried out a deadly attack on Israeli soil during which 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed, and around 240 kidnapped, according to Israel.
In retaliation, Israel relentlessly bombed the Gaza Strip until the establishment of a truce lasting several days which expired Friday morning with the resumption of hostilities, but allowed the release of 80 Israeli hostages. More than 15,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas government.
Before the October 7 attack, the Middle East region was booming in tourism. It even recorded “the best results” compared to other international destinations between January and July 2023, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), with “arrivals exceeding pre-COVID levels by 20%”. 19.
But “the war has dried up travel demand for Israel” and has “impacts on neighboring destinations, with countries suffering a heavy drop in new bookings” such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, but also Turkey, summarizes Olivier Ponti, vice-president of ForwardKeys, a company which analyzes airline reservations, to AFP. Conversely, “the Spanish, Greek and Portuguese coastline seems to benefit from a redirection of requests to go out in the sun”.
“Everything will depend on the duration of the conflict”
In a note at the beginning of November, the rating agency S&P Global Ratings estimated that Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt – “immediate neighbors” of Israel and Gaza – would “suffer the most”.
She pointed out that tourism represented 26% of Lebanon’s balance of payments revenue last year, 21% for Jordan, 12% for Egypt and 3% for Israel.
“Since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas, several tour operators in Egypt have reported cancellations accounting for about half of bookings for November and December, particularly from European travelers,” and several airlines have “ suspended their flights to Lebanon,” recalls S&P.
On Tuesday, Easyjet said that flights to Israel, Jordan (two destinations it has temporarily suspended) and Egypt “represent 4% of [sa] capacity” in winter, and that the conflict would have an impact on its financial results.
The cruise line MSC also announced the cancellation of “the entire winter program” of its liners Orchestra and Sinfonia, which were to sail in the Red Sea or dock at the port of Haifa in Israel.
However, S&P does not expect “a significant decline, for the moment” in tourism in Turkey, due to its geographical distance from the conflict, or in the United Arab Emirates, where “the tourist flow already exceeds levels pre-pandemic”.
“We could even see some tourists diverting their planned trips to other destinations in the region to these two countries,” estimates the agency.
Everything will also depend “on the duration of the conflict, and whether it widens to the region,” warns S&P.
“We are waiting to see how long” the war will last and “then how activity will resume,” underlines Valérie Boned, who represents French travel agencies. “Obviously the French are not rushing to Jordan and Egypt, but we cannot say that we are facing a mass of cancellations, there are rather requests for reorganization of the circuits. »
In Jordan, Suleiman Farajat, advisor to the Prime Minister’s office, believes that “if the war in Gaza does not stop, the next (tourist) season will be in danger. And if it stops, I expect the tourism sector to recover or reach its normal level by September 2024.”