Middle East | One Assassination Too Many

There is nothing like a quick visit to the website of the Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA, to see what is going on in the brain of the ayatollahs’ regime. On Wednesday, that brain was in anger and revenge mode. And that should worry the entire planet.

You might say that Iran is still in anger and revenge mode, and you would be right. The Islamic Republic has defined itself in part by its animosity toward Israel and the United States since the 1979 revolution.

However, the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran has sparked an outcry and a sword-waving within the ayatollahs’ regime such as has not been seen since the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7 and the Israeli response in the Gaza Strip escalated the latent war between Iran and the Hebrew state. A proxy war that has lasted for more than 20 years, but which has been turning into a direct confrontation since the spring.

Even though Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, Iranian accusations are flying everywhere. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who usually takes a while to react to major events, quickly affirmed that it is Tehran’s duty to avenge “the martyr” by inflicting “severe punishment” on Israel. The supreme leader is even said to have given the order to strike the Hebrew state, according to information obtained by the New York Times.

Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, who invited Mr Haniyeh to his inauguration ceremony, said the “Zionist regime” would soon see the “result of its cowardly act of terrorism”. The new foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, used more diplomatic language but argued for Iran’s legitimate right to defend itself after the attack on its soil.

For the moment, these are just words, but words that have the entire Near and Middle East on edge, prompting Israel to close part of its airspace and leading to the suspension of several air links.

Especially since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, who lived in exile in Qatar before his visit to Iran and played a crucial role in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, took place just seven hours after an Israeli missile killed one of Hezbollah’s top military strategists, Fouad Shokr, and five other people in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon.

So three of the main links in what Iran calls the “axis of resistance” – Palestinian Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic – were struck in the heart a few days after a rocket attack – attributed to Hezbollah – killed 12 children from the Druze minority in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

The region, which just three months ago managed to avoid falling into the abyss of a regional war, once again finds itself with one foot in the void.

In April, there were fears of a conflagration in the Near and Middle East when Iran – in revenge for an Israeli attack on its embassy in Syria – launched 300 drones and missiles towards the Jewish state, which was able to intercept 99% of them.

At the time, all sides – starting with Iran and Hezbollah – showed restraint, demonstrating that their leaders had little appetite for an escalation of the conflict. When Israel responded to Tehran’s telegraphed attack with explosions over the historic city of Isfahan, the Islamic regime acted as if nothing had happened and moved on.

It will be much more difficult this time. The targeted assassination of Ismail Haniyeh while he was under the protection of the Revolutionary Guards, the powerful paramilitary force loyal to Ayatollah Khamenei, is a humiliation for the regime that is already on edge, facing an internal protest movement. This regime, which maintains itself in power through fear, can hardly allow an act of war to pass on its territory without putting itself in danger.

Iran’s response, however, is not the only thing that should worry us. The events of the past few days have jeopardized – if not detonated – the talks for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and for the return of the hostages held by Hamas. These talks, which are supported by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, seemed to be on the verge of success.

With the death of Ismail Haniyeh, who was at the centre of these indirect negotiations, hopes that violence would soon give way to calm in the Gaza Strip have also been dashed to the core.

“How can mediation be successful if one side murders the negotiator on the other side?” the Qatari prime minister said on this subject. To ask the question is to answer it.