Joe Biden won the Democratic primary in Michigan on Tuesday, bothered by a blank vote that could haunt him in this pivotal state during the presidential election. His anticipated Republican counterpart, Donald Trump, won another unequivocal victory.
The result could bode badly for the re-election chances of the American president, who won this state narrowly against Donald Trump four years ago. At the time these lines were written, while barely 35% of Democratic votes had been counted, more than 45,000 “uncommitted” votes, the equivalent of blank votes, had been deposited in the ballot box. This was almost 14% of the provisional total.
Activists in this key Midwestern state launched the “Listen to Michigan” campaign, arguing that American support for Israel was “contradictory to the values of the Democratic Party.” Through the “uncommitted” vote, they wanted to pressure Mr. Biden to demand an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
They had set a target – largely exceeded – of 10,000 blank votes, in symbolic reference to the margin which allowed Donald Trump to win against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
PHOTO JEFF KOWALSKY, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Activists are calling for a blank vote in protest, aiming to pressure the president to reverse his support for Israel and call for an immediate ceasefire.
Fatima Elzaghir, a voter, was one of those who voted blank in this election, she told AFP. “It is obvious that appealing to empathy has no influence on most politicians. So maybe the fact that [Biden] wants to win Michigan will push him to demand a cease-fire,” said the young nurse.
The threat of a vote that does not come out
In the opinion of Rafael Jacob, associate researcher of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, the preponderance of “uncommitted” votes is above all “symbolic”. “This in no way calls into question the fact that Joe Biden is the leader of the Democratic Party,” he says. At best, he said, the vote will put some pressure on the Biden camp, “but I’m not sure it will change anything.”
Valérie Beaudoin, also from the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, nevertheless expects that the share of “uncommitted” voters will be higher this year than in past Democratic primaries.
The numbers seen in Michigan, however, will be difficult to replicate elsewhere, since the state has the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the country – more than 310,000 residents are of Middle Eastern or North African origin.
Moreover, the two observers do not believe that the voters who shunned Mr. Biden during the primaries will nevertheless turn to Donald Trump at the time of the presidential election. However, if some of them, unhappy with Biden’s policies, decided not to vote, “that could tilt the victory in favor of Trump,” believes Ms. Beaudoin.
The protest movement targeting Joe Biden has found echo within the White House, where officials are displaying growing frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his conduct of the war in Gaza.
However, the United States continues to deliver quantities of weapons to the Jewish state, while leading intense efforts to negotiate a second truce. Joe Biden’s only real opponent for the Democratic nomination, Dean Phillips, a wealthy parliamentarian from the state of Minnesota, only collected 2.8% of the votes in Michigan, according to the first results counted.
Trump continues his momentum
On the Republican side, Donald Trump, with 67.2% of the vote, has now swept the first five states on the Republican primary calendar. As for his main opponent, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, everything indicated that she would obtain barely 30% of the votes cast. Ms. Haley was defeated last Saturday in her home state of South Carolina by 20 percentage points.
It’s not really a race. This is a triumph for Donald Trump.
Rafael Jacob, associate researcher of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair
He also wonders what Nikki Haley’s motivations are for remaining in the race, after having obtained disappointing results so far. “We hear that she is holding on for her political future. But the more she hangs on, the more it hurts – she loses political capital. »
In Ms. Beaudoin’s opinion, it is very likely that Ms. Haley will withdraw from the race after “Super Tuesday”, March 5, a key moment in the primaries when a large number of states are called upon to elect their candidate. “Nikki Haley wants these 16 states to have a say in the primaries. Does she have a chance of winning? She is extremely thin, and after “Super Tuesday”, she might give up. »
With Agence France-Presse and the Associated Press