The political scientist, director of the “opinion” department of Ifop, was the guest of “8h30 franceinfo”, Saturday November 18, 2023.
Jérôme Fourquet, political scientist and director of the “opinion” department of Ifop, was the guest of “8h30 franceinfo”, Saturday November 18, 2023. Meetings in Saint-Denis, RN electorate, Mélenchon’s strategy and five years of the yellow vests … He answered questions from Jean-Rémi Baudot and Agathe Lambret.
Meetings in Saint-Denis: by going there, “Jordan Bardella participates in this strategy of institutionalization of the RN”
Jordan Bardella’s participation in the Saint-Denis meeting on Friday contributes to “further institutionalize“the National Rally and”place at the center of the electoral landscape as one of, or the main opponent“, analyzes Jérôme Fourquet, while he new edition of the Saint-Denis meetings, at the initiative of Emmanuel Macron, was boycotted by the leaders of the Insoumis, Republican and Socialist parties.
“We recall that Marine Le Pen was qualified twice in the second round of the presidential election, that the RN has a group of 88 deputies and they are today very established“, underlines the political scientist, author of France after. Political table, published by Seuil. “They are trying to build this legitimacy even further and from this point of view, what happened last Sunday [la participation du RN à la marche contre l’antisémitisme à Paris] it is a turning point in the history of the party and in French political history“, he believes.
“If we go back a little, in 1990, there was a big march against anti-Semitism“, recalls Jérôme Fourquet. A march organized after the desecration of the Jewish cemetery of Carpentras, in Vaucluse. “At the time, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s National Front was absolutely not present in the demonstration and it was designated by everyone as responsible, if not materially, at least morally, intellectually and politically..” According to him, in thirty years, “the anathema of the RN and the FN on the question of anti-Semitism has been partly lifted and by going to this meeting in Saint-Denis, Jordan Bardella is participating in this strategy of institutionalization of the RN“, he concludes.
Jewish electorate: historically “rather on the left”, it has pivoted “towards its right” since the 2000s
Historically, “the center of gravity of the Jewish electorate was rather on the left“, remarks Jérôme Fourquet, returning to an observation made in his new book. But “from the early 2000s“, which corresponds to “start of the second Intifada in the occupied territories [de Cisjordanie]”and the importation of this conflict into France with the rise of anti-Semitic acts,”this electorate begins to pivot towards its right with also the fact that at the time we are under the Jospin years and the left in power is very bothered by the rise of this new anti-Semitism“, explains the Ifop political scientist.
“This electorate therefore feels abandoned, threatened, it leaves its neighborhoods and gradually shifts to the right“, he continues. “It was first Alain Madelin in 2002 who captured part of this electorate, then Nicolas Sarkozy, who made 50% of the Jewish electorate in 2007 and the last stage of this right-wing is the spectacular scores of Éric Zemmour , in the Jewish electorate last year“, explains Jérôme Fourquet.
Israel-Hamas: “Jean-Luc Mélenchon is betting on speaking to his hardest electoral base”
On the question of the war between Israel and Hamas and the question of anti-Semitism, “Jean-Luc Mélenchon took very clear, very assertive positions“, notes Jérôme Fourquet. “During Sunday’s demonstration [contre l’antisémitisme], it was La France insoumise and Jean-Luc Mélenchon who were absent“, he underlines, drawing the parallel with the absence of the National Front during the 1990 march after the desecration of the Carpentras cemetery. “On this question there was a kind of crossover, which makes us say that we have moved into a post-France where the benchmarks have partly been reversed.“
“Jean-Luc Mélenchon is betting on speaking to his hardest electoral base, he considers that on this issue he must stand out very strongly in order to speak, he believes, to France about neighborhoods, about cited, to the Muslim electorate“, adds the political scientist. “I think the goal is to consolidate this base and seek out abstainers“, he continues. “They are convinced that there is a reserve army of abstention in working-class neighborhoods.”
Asked about the more urban and center-left electorate, who might no longer turn to LFI, Jérôme Fourquet believes that “Jean-Luc Mélenchon has sovereign contempt for this electorate and he considers that at the end of the day, this electorate will return to him“, thanks to a dynamic of “helpful vote“.
Five years of the “yellow vest” movement: “The soil is still there”, “a spark could make things start again”
Five years after the birth of the “yellow vest” movement,the soil is still there“, estimates Jérôme Fourquet. “What is changing, perhaps, is that the government is very aware that it is facing a highly flammable situation and is doing everything to try to keep the temperature at a reasonable level.“, continues the political scientist.
In 2018, the increase in the carbon tax on fuels triggered a major protest movement. From November 17, demonstrators wearing yellow vests began to gather every Saturday, initially organizing blockades of roads or roundabouts. “At the time, the price of a liter of diesel was one euro and forty, today it is two euros. Today, we have 40% of the population who tell us they have reduced the food portions served at the table at home. The social ferments are still there“, explains Jérôme Fourquet.
Added to this is, “the feeling of not being recognized, the absence of an initiative referendum aimed at the population“So, he continues.a spark could get things going again“. And as in 2018, “there will be no announcement“.
Citizen initiative referendum: “One of the ways” to escape the “democratic crisis”
The director of the “opinion” department of Ifop recalls that the yellow vests are demanding the establishment of a citizens’ initiative referendum (RIC). Without speaking out in favor of the RIC, Jérôme Fourquet believes that a reform of a shared initiative referendum can be “one of the ways“to get out of the”democratic crisis“what does France know”for several decades now“. He qualifies: “Even if it would not necessarily be the ultimate answer, it would be to give more voice to the population through the referendum“.
Because today, the shared initiative referendum must be “supported by a hundred parliamentarians” And “10% of the electorate must mobilize and sign the request to open a referendum“. Gold, “it is a gauge that is excessively high. That’s 4.7 million French people who must petition, which has never happened“, underlines the political scientist. According to him, “reducing the gauge to one million for the opening of the referendum could be an interesting solution“.
To support his point, Jérôme Fourquet takes the example of the pension reform which sparked strong mobilization. “Left-wing organizations and trade union organizations mobilized all their activists to sign this famous petition. At best we reached a million and a half signatories“.
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Find the entire “8:30 am franceinfo” by Jérôme Fourquet, Saturday November 18, 2023 :