Medium term | The Press

Occupation by the Israeli army

Mentioned at the beginning of November by Benyamin Netanyahu, this scenario targets the Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip for an “indefinite period”, in order to ensure “the security” of Israel and to prevent any possibility of reconstruction for Hamas. Faced with “clear” opposition from Washington, the Israeli Prime Minister, however, qualified his remarks, assuring that Israel “was not seeking to govern Gaza”, but simply to “give it, and us, a better future” , without however excluding a “credible force” to enter the enclave if necessary in the face of security threats.

Is the land occupation of Gaza even possible? Israel will undoubtedly want to extend its presence to stabilize the enclave. But Benjamin Toubol, doctoral student in political science at Laval University, does not think this situation is viable for a very long period: “It will still be much more complicated for Israel,” he says. In simple terms of security and economic personnel, that would mean concentrating a lot of personnel in Gaza, when we know that the front with Lebanon and Hezbollah can represent a risk. »

Thomas Vescovi, an independent researcher specializing in the region, is less categorical. According to the author of the book The failure of a utopia – A history of the left in Israel, nothing excludes that Israel wants to “organize” northern Gaza in its own way. “There is in the Israeli mantra, and even more so since October 7, the idea that Israel’s security can only be ensured by Israel. Currently, the Israeli government sees very favorably the idea of ​​recovering northern Gaza and gradually changing the political situation, perhaps by installing new colonies there, perhaps by occupying this area for a fairly long period of time. territory which can be transformed at the will of the Israelis. »

Occupation by an international peace force

Many observers have mentioned a possible “UN protectorate”. The problem with this option is that Israel is currently in open conflict with the UN, and more particularly with its Secretary General António Guterres, who is increasing criticism of it, which necessarily compromises the scenario of an international peace force. .

We can also wonder how this scenario, authorized by Israel, would be received by the inhabitants of Gaza. According to Professor Rex Brynen of McGill University, an expert on the Middle East, an international peacekeeping force would possibly be perceived as a “subcontractor for the Israeli occupation” and, therefore, received with hostility. Ultimately, this scenario would only have value in the concrete perspective of a Palestinian state, Rex Brynen further believes.

The Palestinian Authority in charge

The Palestinian Authority, which currently manages the West Bank, has a civil administration, security and intelligence forces, in addition to benefiting from international financial support. The problem is that it is very badly perceived by the Palestinians, who see it as an authoritarian and corrupt structure. Its leader, Fatah party leader Mahmoud Abbas, successor to Yasser Arafat, is no longer credible and is accused of playing the Israelis’ game. In this context, it is difficult to see how this political entity, which was driven out of Gaza in 2007, could enter the enclave on the back of Israeli tanks.

United States President Joe Biden last week called for a future reunification of Gaza and the West Bank under a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority. He asserted that “the Palestinian Authority, in its current form, is not capable of taking responsibility for Gaza.”