Mbappé concern, Real weakened, ghosts to hunt … The keys to the shock of the knockout stages of the Champions League

After mastering the first leg, the PSG players flew to Madrid with a one-goal lead in their bags thanks to Kylian Mbappé’s individual feat at the end of the match. To qualify for the quarter-finals, the deal is quite simple for Mauricio Pochettino’s players: they must not lose on Wednesday March 9. A draw or a win would qualify them, a one-goal loss would lead to extra time, but a heavier setback would create another rout for Paris in the Champions League.

Mbappé, blur around the providential man

This is the question that invaded Paris and Madrid on Monday. Kylian Mbappé had to cut short his training following a shock and carried out examinations at the hospital. Nothing very serious a priori for the native of Bondy, but his participation remains uncertain for the meeting even if the latest information announces that he should be able to hold his rank. The French international also participated in the training session on the lawn of the match, Tuesday, March 8.

A heavy presence. This season, the former Monegasque is walking on water with 24 goals and 17 assists in 34 games. “Kyky” is decisive every 69 minutes in all competitions, more than once per match on average. His possible absence would therefore be more than detrimental to PSG, especially when we have in mind the scenario of the first leg in which he went to offer victory to his family and that of the match against Nice on Saturday where he was absent because suspended.

How Carlo Ancelotti and Mauricio Pochettino approach the match also depends on whether or not the superstar is on the scoresheet. We felt Real Madrid cautious in the first leg, for fear of seeing Kylian Mbappé go behind the defense and never see him again. The French striker is a real deterrent for anyone who wants to press high.

Real slaps, Paris woozy

Three shots, none on target, it goes without saying that Gianluigi Donnarumma didn’t have much to do in the first round of this confrontation. Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior, 42 goals between them this season, failed to create chances against an impervious rearguard. An almost surprising Parisian defensive solidity given the defensive reliability displayed in Ligue 1.

In the last three league games that separated the two star-studded encounters, Paris lost twice and did not achieve a single clean sheet. The nets of Keylor Navas and Gianluigi Donnarumma shook five times: nothing to be reassured about. On the contrary, Real won their three confrontations by scoring eight goals. Karim Benzema, back from injury for the first leg and visibly diminished, seems to have regained all his means.

But the main question is what face will PSG show for this round of 16 return. The rough side and often put in difficulty in the league or the solid and collective aspect in defense, often present in the Champions League this season? Opposite Ancelotti will have to show more inventiveness after a failed first leg in which Real stumbled on the plan of Pochettino. “It was a very good match, we cut their preferential circuits and their way of playing. welcomed the Argentinian technician, who had aligned three central defenders by bringing Danilo Pereira down a notch.

Valverde security or the Camavinga surprise

The historic trio of Madrid midfielder Casemiro-Kroos-Modric had been in great difficulty during the first leg, failing to revive and find the attackers against the Parisian pressing. Carlo Ancelotti will have to change him by force of circumstance and there could only be the Croatian left. Casemiro, suspended for accumulating yellow cards, will see the game from the stands as Toni Kroos missed the last match through injury.

The German, in the group announced by Real Madrid on Tuesday, has still trained and has a chance of starting the match. It remains to be seen whether he will be 100% against a Parisian midfielder capable of taking advantage of the slightest weakness of the opponent. The French Eduardo Camavinga, holder Saturday against Real Sociedad alongside Casimero and Modric, could be established to compensate for the suspension of the Brazilian.

The former Rennais also made an impression at the Bernabeu with a very nice goal from outside the box. But Carlo Ancelotti could prefer Federico Valverde, more experienced and more solid defensively. Ferland Mendy, left side will also be suspended. He should be replaced by Nacho Fernandez, a trained central defender capable of being shifted to one side.

Santiago Bernabeu, fortress of Spain

If the lair of Real Madrid is far from being known for its hostile atmosphere, the players of the White House have been able to make it a fortress this season. Undefeated at home in 14 league games played at the Santiago Bernabeu this season, Madrid fans have witnessed just one defeat at home this year.

It was in the Champions League against Sheriff Tiraspol, in a match dominated head and shoulders by the players of Ancelotti, who shot 30 times on goal on target eleven times but fell to an effective Moldovan and in success. A defeat that did not prevent Karim Benzema’s teammates from finishing well ahead of their Champions League group ahead of Inter Milan.

A solidity to qualify on the last round of 16 played at home for the people of Madrid. If he won with authority last year against Atalanta (3-1), Real Madrid had two big underperformances in 2020 and 2019. A 2-1 defeat against Manchester City, just before the start of the pandemic, but above all a 4-1 humiliation against Ajax, which had led to the early elimination of the defending champions despite a victory in the Netherlands in the first leg. It’s not just in Paris where demons from the past can resurface.