Fourteen years into the Syrian civil war, uncertainty surrounds the regime’s stability and its impact on migration patterns. Recent social media images show heavy traffic as some Syrians attempt to return to Damascus, while others flee to neighboring countries. The UNHCR reports millions displaced, with a notable number considering repatriation despite security concerns. Amid evolving political dynamics, further population movements are expected, reflecting a complex landscape of fear and hope among Syrian refugees.
Understanding the Current Situation in Syria
Fourteen years into the civil war, the question arises: does the potential fall of the Syrian regime signify a new wave of migration or a chance for many to return home? Following the resignation of Bashar al-Assad, triggered by a rapid advance of Islamist rebels, numerous images depicting extensive traffic jams have surfaced on social media. These visuals are often interpreted as either Syrians fleeing to Lebanon or making their way back to Damascus, the capital city.
As one observer noted on social media, “The Syrians are not necessarily happy. This is the reality. They are fleeing massively. But where to?” This sentiment echoes concerns expressed by far-right politicians, including Jordan Bardella, who predict a significant influx of migrants after the regime’s potential collapse. In response, Jean-Noël Barrot, the resigning Minister of Foreign Affairs, firmly countered this perspective, labeling it a major misconception.
Traffic and Migration Trends Amid Uncertainty
However, the images circulating do not exclusively depict an exodus triggered by the regime change, which remains uncertain. Captured by Turkish television TRT Haber via drone, these visuals illustrate Syrians traveling towards Damascus, a city where the Assad regime’s influence is reportedly waning. On December 8, the channel noted, “Syrians heading to Damascus, the capital of Syria, where Bashar al-Assad’s regime has lost control, have caused intense traffic around the city.”
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that there are currently “7.2 million people displaced within the country and 6.2 million refugees,” primarily residing in neighboring nations like Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. In the first eight months of 2024 alone, “more than 34,000 Syrian refugees” have begun to return, although the UNHCR emphasizes that “security concerns within Syria remain the primary barrier to repatriation.” Despite the ongoing uncertainty in Damascus, many Syrian refugees in Turkey and Lebanon are contemplating a return to their homeland, as reported by various news outlets.
Images emerging from the borders highlight this trend, particularly at the crossing between Turkey and Lebanon. An AFP journalist shared insights on December 8 regarding traffic jams forming near Gaziantep as people sought to cross back into Syria. Arthur Sarradin, a special correspondent for LCI and France Inter, encountered families making the journey on foot, without vehicles, as they headed towards the nearest Syrian city.
Nevertheless, some individuals harbor fears regarding a potential resurgence of violence in Damascus, prompting them to reconsider their journey back, although this trend is not yet fully quantified. François-Xavier Ménage, a special envoy to Syria for TF1-LCI, observed families fleeing into Lebanon, corroborating earlier reports. At the Masnaa border crossing, L’Orient le Jour has also noted the existence of “two Syrias crossing paths.” As the political landscape in Syria continues to evolve, further population movements are anticipated in the upcoming days and weeks.
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