“Marine Le Pen continues to be weakened”estimated this Sunday March 6 on franceinfo Mathieu Souquière, expert at the Jean Jaurès Foundation, while the former deputy of the National Front, Marion Maréchal, officially announced her rallying to the campaign of Eric Zemmour in Toulon (Var). “Marine Le Pen has been dropped by many of her supporters for several weeks, where Eric Zemmour on the contrary, records continuous rallying”, he adds. According to the expert, “it is difficult to anticipate the gain that Eric Zemmour can derive from this rallying”.
franceinfo: Can we speak of a rallying of weight?
Mathieu Souquiere : Yes, definitely. I don’t know if it’s a scoop because Marion Maréchal-Le Pen had in any case announced a few weeks ago that this is when she would make her decision, that she would see which one is best placed between Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen to announce his support. She does so at a time when, basically, the two candidates are neck and neck. Neither of them folded the game. In the barometer of our foundation, with an extremely large panel of 16,000 people and with extremely low margins of error, Marine Marine Le Pen is at 14 and a half, where Eric Zemmour is at 13. With the margins of error , we can imagine Eric Zemmour as well as Marine Le Pen qualifying in the second round. What is certain, if we compare them, is that there are differences in campaign dynamics. We can clearly see that Marine Le Pen has been dropped by many of her supporters for several weeks, where Eric Zemmour, on the contrary, has recorded continuous rallies.
Can this rallying of Marion Maréchal play on the voting intentions in favor of Eric Zemmour?
It’s very difficult to say! It is difficult to anticipate the gain that he can derive from it. In any case, what it says is that Marine Le Pen continues to be weakened. She does not attract. On the contrary, there is a kind of repulsive phenomenon, as we have moreover in the center and on the right, where we can clearly see that it is Emmanuel Macron who attracts to him, who captures his rallyings, where a Valérie Pécresse is dropped by a number of heavyweights. Exactly the same thing is happening on the far right. Today, this is done with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, who embodies something quite special. She embodies youth, femininity and above all the filiation with the historic National Front, with behind, of course, in watermark, the figure of Jean-Marie Le Pen. Again, difficult to know how many points this can bring to Eric Zemmour.
For Marion Maréchal, is it also a way to return to the political game, she who had taken a step back in recent years?
As she says, after five years of withdrawal, she is not going home, that is to say at the National Rally, she is embarking on a new political adventure. We obviously know that beyond the score obtained by Eric Zemmour in the presidential election, it is the post-presidential election that is at stake. This is the legislative question. Nothing is decided, the electorate remains volatile, but Eric Zemmour is very far from Emmanuel Macron in the event of a second round. There is obviously something at stake in terms of the recomposition of the right and the extreme right, after the presidential and after the legislative elections.