A taste of June 12? The results of the first round of legislative elections in the 11 constituencies of French people living abroad were announced on Sunday June 5, one week ahead of the rest of France. Figures very observed and commented on by the parties vying to win a maximum of seats in the National Assembly, on June 12 and 19. Here is what to remember from these first results.
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1The candidates of the macronie mainly in the lead
They were the big favourites. The candidates of the macronie, united under the label Ensemble, came mainly in the lead among French people living abroad for this first round. In North America, Roland Lescure, chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic Affairs Committee, is ahead of the Nupes candidate. Same configuration in Latin America and the Caribbean with Eléonore Caroit; in Northern Europe with Alexandre Holroyd; in Benelux with Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade; in Switzerland and Liechtenstein with Marc Ferracci; in Ecentral Europe with Frédéric Petit; in the Middle East and Africa with Amélia Lakrafi; in Eastern Europe, Asia and Oceania with Anne Genetet.
The candidates of the presidential majority, on the other hand, rank second in the 8th constituency (Italy, Greece, Turkey and Israel), where Deborah Abisror-de Lieme (LREM) is preceded by the outgoing UDI deputy, Meyer Habib; as well as in the 9th constituency (Maghreb and West Africa) where Karim Ben Cheikh, the candidate of Génération.s, invested by Nupes, comes first ahead of Elisabeth Moreno, former Minister for Gender Equality, invested by LREM.
Finally, in the 5th constituency (Spain, Portugal and Monaco), Manuel Valls, officially invested by the Republic on the move, is beaten. It was Renaud Le Berre, the Nupes candidate, who came out on top in the first round and who will face Stéphane Vojetta, the outgoing deputy and dissident candidate for the presidential majority.
2La Nupes qualified in ten of the 11 constituencies
The alliance on the left has borne fruit. The New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) managed to qualify in ten of the 11 constituencies for French people living abroad. This is twice as many as the left-wing candidates in the 2017 legislative elections. Only one constituency resists the left-wing alliance, the 8th covering the Mediterranean rim, including Italy and Israel, where the incumbent UDI, Meyer Habib, came out on top ahead of LREM candidate Deborah Abisror-de Lieme.
Despite these numerous qualifications for the second round, victories are expected to be difficult to obtain for Nupes in the constituencies of French people abroad. The left alliance only came out on top in one constituency, the 9th covering the Maghreb and West Africa, where Karim Ben Cheikh, the candidate of Génération.s preceded Elisabeth Moreno, invested by LREM . The vote transfers also seem more favorable to the presidential majority than to the left for the second round in these constituencies.
3Manuel Valls eliminated in the first round
A symbolic defeat rocked the first results. In the 5th constituency of French people living abroad, which notably includes Spain and Portugal, the former Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, invested by the presidential majority, was eliminated in the first round. He is preceded by the candidate of the union of the left, Renaud Le Berre, who comes first with 27.24%, and the outgoing deputy Stéphane Vojetta (25.39%), dissident candidate who had lost the nomination LREM for the benefit of the former Prime Minister. Manuel Valls only comes in third position with just over 15% of the vote.
“If dissent and division have sown confusion, I cannot ignore my score and the fact that my candidacy did not convince”said the former Prime Minister on Twitter, even before the announcement of the official results. “It is up to me lucidly to draw the consequences”he added, while calling for the Nupes candidate to be blocked in the second round. From now on, “the gathering will take place behind Stéphane Vojetta”, underlined the secretary general of LREM, Stanislas Guerini, Monday, on franceinfo.
4Outgoing MP Joachim Son-Forget swept away
In the 6th constituency of French people living abroad, covering Switzerland and Liechtenstein, outgoing MP Joachim Son-Forget, elected in 2017 for LREM before joining the far right by supporting Eric Zemmour in the presidential election, was eliminated. It is the economist close to Emmanuel Macron, Marc Ferracci, who comes first. He will have to face Magali Mangin, invested by Nupes.
5Very low participation, but on the rise
Despite very high abstention, French people living abroad – there are 1.4 million registered on the lists outside the national territory – seem to have mobilized more than in 2017, when only 19.1% of registered voters were displaced, according to provisional figures.
Even more than in the presidential election, abstention is expected at a record level for the first round of legislative elections on June 12 (52 or 53% according to the polls, against 51.3% in 2017). The abstention of young people and the working classes could benefit the current majority, which relies on an older and more affluent electorate than that of the RN or the Nupes, believe specialists.